We don’t know the full story concerning the events leading up to the design tweak announced on Wednesday.
Nor do we know which smartphone/market Honor will place the battery.
We do know that Honor and Envx have for more than a year been collaborating very closely and meet weekly and that Honor is happy with progress. If Honor wasn’t happy they would have walked, but instead they allowed their name to be publicly announced.
Honor has been involved in the development of the cell and would’ve known there was a chance that it might fall short of 1000 cycles in their upcoming smartphone. They clearly want to advertise their new phone battery as having all these groundbreaking features to include good cycle life. Honor could have accepted the existing AI-1 with 900+ cycles. The whole process is customer led and it was doubtless Honor who instigated the design tweak. (Envx are not at the stage where they can tell customers to take it or leave it).
The PR in July announcing AI-1 said it had 900+ cycles. Yet just 3 weeks later in the ER, Envx said the cell had a “projected” cycle life of 1000. That estimate based on some internal tests transpired to be a little optimistic (in hindsight, revealing this projected figure was an error).
But Honor really wanted to push the cycle life limits to get to the magic 1000 number.
Envx can hardly be seen to criticize their treasured customer for not making do with the 900 lifecycle figure.
The quotes below make more sense in this context.
Raj: “We’ve now figured out what it takes to get to 1,000 cycles. We have that chemistry now that we’ll be sampling in 4Q. You can see now that the next customer will actually get samples that we would have validated for 1,000 cycles. You can see this problem that we are now addressing would have been solved, because we’ve now got ahead of that
There are a lot of things we learned with our collaboration with Honor. How they do the drop test, how they do a cycle life test..”
In Q&A the William Blair analyst said, “Congrats on naming Honor as your lead smartphone customer. This is a big name in China. Unfortunately, though, it looks like they want 1,000 cycles now. Is this correct? How much of this was a surprise to the team, and what’s required on the design front to achieve that?”
Raj – “Yeah, Mark, the requirement has always been 1,000 cycles. As I mentioned in the last earnings call. It’s a development program that we’re working together with them. We gave them samples in July, and we were doing cycle life testing while they were doing cycle life testing on the same batteries we provided. As we went along in this testing process, we realized that we need to make one more small design change to get to the full performance that THEY want.”
In answer to a question from the Cantor analyst, Raj replied:
“.. these are not like chips where we can do simulation and figure out what will happen, what will not. For example, when I used to build processors, we’d have a simulation model. We would do analysis. We’d know what we’d do, and then tools will help you do it. When you tape out, you’re pretty much guaranteed to get it. Unfortunately, in batteries, you just have to run for 1,000 cycles before you know if you got it. That’s just the nature of it. The good news is once you get it, you have it. The first one is hard, but I feel pretty confident..”
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lynn:
William Blair 8/18/25:
“Benton was very confident that the deep two-year engagement with the lead customer has little risk of last-minute design tweaks and in securing a PO by end of year.”
Whatever caused this chemistry change probably happened in October.
If Honor decides to tweak something, what is ENVX going to do? Client is always right. Especially because they literally hand-held & educated ENVX the smartphone battery qualification process. As Steve Jobs said – want to ship mediocrity now or revolutionary product later.
Enovix just admitted it needs to “change chemistry” and that this will delay commercialization. For anyone with industry experience, that phrase is a red flag. You don’t change chemistry mid-qualification unless the current cell failed OEM validation, whether due to cycle life collapse, swelling, thermal instability, or manufacturing yield issues.
Silicon-dominant anodes are notoriously unstable without a finely tuned electrolyte system. If Enovix’s original chemistry couldn’t maintain volume expansion control or SEI stability through full qualification cycles, that’s not a small tweak , that’s a core material failure. And once you touch the electrolyte or binder formulation, all prior validation data becomes obsolete. You’re basically restarting the qualification clock.
OEMs (especially Tier-1 smartphone customers) run multi-month reliability and abuse tests. A reformulation now means Enovix likely missed one or more customer test gates. So “chemistry change” really reads as “the battery didn’t pass, and we need to go back to the lab.”
The company is still talking about ramp timelines, but chemistry reformulation plus re-qualification is a 6–12 month detour at best. That’s before you even factor in process tuning for high-volume manufacturing.
After years of promising mass production “next year,” now the core chemistry itself is in flux. Until they can show consistent OEM-qualified cells with stable cycle life and manufacturable yield, ENVX remains a high-risk R&D story, not a production-ready battery company.
Name-dropping a customer doesn’t change the physics. OEMs let partners reference them all the time in development programs; it’s PR, not proof of qualification. Having your logo on a CES booth doesn’t mean your cells have passed validation or are anywhere near production sign-off.
Chemistry changes mid-development are not “common” at this stage. You only swap core electrolyte or SEI formulations after extended cycle testing exposes a failure mode that can’t be tuned out. That means Enovix’s current chemistry didn’t meet spec…period. When that happens, every reliability test has to restart from zero.
OEMs hedge; they can keep a partner’s name on the slide deck while simultaneously qualifying backup suppliers. It costs them nothing to maintain optionality. What matters is qualification data, yield, and delivery, not whose name is mentioned in a press release.
That’s not how OEM partnerships work. Public name usage doesn’t prove qualification; it just means the legal NDA around disclosure was relaxed, likely for mutual marketing purposes. Large OEMs often allow early-stage partners to use their name to highlight innovation, even if the tech isn’t production-ready. It doesn’t mean the product passed validation or will ship.
If Enovix’s chemistry truly met spec, they wouldn’t be changing it now. The timing tells the story, you don’t reformulate the electrolyte or SEI interface “for fun” right after a major OEM test cycle. That’s the definition of a failed qualification loop.
Honor keeping them engaged isn’t proof of success, it’s proof of optionality. OEMs maintain multiple parallel programs; they’ll keep a supplier involved until the last possible moment in case the reformulation works. It costs them next to nothing, but it costs Enovix time and cash.
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if it failed entirely and had no chance the customer would be gone, this is the absolute fact. But they aren’t… no doubt Enovix wanted to use their name over the past year+ but Honor didn’t allow it, which is standard practice when it comes to big companies doing deals with small public companies. The small company ALWAYS wants to use the name, it’s powerful marketing … but Honor finally let them, which means the relationship is just fine. Why would they want their name associated with a failed product they do not plan to use? You and I can make any claim we want, but these facts matters more than anything…. AI-1 is a platform where every aspect of the battery can be tweaked by the customer. They want to make another tweak, it happens. This battery is likely going to be sold in multiple countries, in multiple models, per Raj. They plan to use it heavil imo, because it surpasses everything else…but first they need to get it right, and will imo
then why did this credible and very large customer allow them to use their name (announced this week) after a year+ of not allowing it?… and why is a tech company going to be featuring their battery at CES? If it truly failed, I’d imagine they would have moved on to another battery by now… not give them approval to make their relationship public. This is a big deal for a highly credible international company. They are putting their NAME behond Enovix now. Why?! Adjustments to battery chemistry are common. This is a joint development process… having to wait a few more months sucks, but it’s part of the process towards achieving something significant… if it was easy, it wouldn’t have taken decades to develop a new battery architecture for phones. Enovix is closer than anyone has ever got and MANY have tried.
don’t quite understand how if they were working working so closely with Honor and having weekly calls they did not understand the requirement for it to go 1000 cycles?
WantedToRetireEarly
Can’t go burning cash for more months, scale fabs & teams, hire & pay them well, when you can’t figure out how to make a FKN sample that meets your FKN key & first customer’s requirements!
Kashmanchew II
What’s happening at Enovix should alarm every investor.
In Q2 2025, CEO Raj Talluri proudly told investors the company’s new AI-1 battery hit 1,000 cycles — a major leap from the 800 cycles they had previously claimed. The company spoke of “commercial qualification” and “customer testing,” giving the impression that validation was nearly complete.
But in Q3, that story changed. Suddenly, the same company admitted the chemistry still hadn’t proven 1,000 cycles. Now the line is that they believe the newest samples will get there in Q4.
The Q2 call made it sound like Enovix was on the verge of delivering a market-ready, customer-qualified battery. The truth? They’re still chasing lab results, not delivering commercial reality.
Investors were sold a breakthrough that doesn’t exist. Every quarter brings a new qualifier — “we believe,” “we project,” “we’re validating.” Those aren’t achievements; they are predatory marketing.
On the 25Q3 conference call it was mentioned that the previous prototype that had been in testing – both at Enovix and at Honor – apparently didn’t manage to do 1000 charging cycles. In regards to the design change that led to restarting the validation process, the CEO said “Along the way, we noticed that the trend line is now such that to get past 1,000 cycles, we have to make a chemistry change, not a form factor change, not a scope change. I mean, we started validating that chemistry change, and we now have samples internally that we believe will go all 1,000 cycles.”
To me that sounds like success of the new validation is far from certain, which would mean that Honor doesn’t have a specific plan yet to launch a phone with Enovix batteries. The idea that Honor would have had a complete supply chain, production capacity and marketing plan in place to launch a new phone model this year and now has everybody waiting for Enovix to get its batteries to work, is simply absurd.
Back in July when Enovix issued a warrant dividend (per the chairman in an effort to trigger a short squeeze), it also announced the launch of a new AI-1 platform. There has never been a full explanation about what was different about AI-1, compared to prior iterations of battery prototypes, but in the announcement of the AI-1 platform Enovix still used the term “100% active silicon anodes”. That term refers to the use of silicon oxide and is meant to distinguish it from the use of silicon carbon where silicon isn’t 100% of the active material. Does that mean that the decision to switch to silicon carbon was made at a later stage? And what batteries got tested then by Honor? It feels like Enovix has a lot of obvious questions yet to answer.
But the real question is whether, with all the changes we’re seeing, the value proposition is still the same as it was when the company became public. Bulls have been betting on a giant leap in battery performance but in the current confusion I’m not sure if that’s on the table anymore.
“And honestly, I’m happy I tried this experiment out. I would much rather try my hardest to be patient and give the company all my time and watch it fail, rather than having never tried to be a more patient investor.
I’m not bitter from this experiment. I could blame management for how they kept saying that they would have over $1 billion in revenues in 2026, and now I’m not sure they could even get to $100 million in revenues in 2026.
The Bottom Line
I’m closing this one with no regrets. Sometimes you have to take a swing and miss to remind yourself what real conviction feels like.
Enovix didn’t work out, but its capital is freed up, the lessons are learned, and the portfolio is cleaned up from this dragging position on my performance. Let’s go!
People keep saying Enovix’s issue is “communication.” No, the issue is they know their battery doesn’t work at scale, and the only move left is to stall and spin.
If they had a cell that passed OEM qualification, it’d be front-page news. Instead, it’s vague “sampling,” new buzzwords every quarter, and pivots to smaller markets like VR/AR to buy time. The 3rd-party IR firm can’t fix that it’s lipstick on a corpse.
At this point, management’s strategy is survival: keep the story alive long enough to raise cash and hope they can invent something that finally works. Until then, it’s not poor comms , it’s deliberate misdirection.
They’re not just quiet. They’re lying, omitting, and spinning to stay alive.
If the cells hadn’t failed, we’d see:
At least one Tier 1 design win announced after all those “samples.”
Real cycle-life or safety data in a 10-Q or tech brief.
Consistent guidance instead of a new “focus market” every six months.
The fact we’ve seen none of that tells you exactly where the problem is , in reliability, yield, and manufacturability. The architecture might look good in a lab cell, but scaling it up has clearly broken something they can’t fix yet.
Enovix’s repeated shipment of untested or inadequately validated cells demonstrates a consistent pattern of reckless corporate governance, materially exposing investors to execution and operational risk. Management has a documented history of authorizing products—such as the FAB1 line, which was deployed and installed prior to the completion of SAT (Site Acceptance Testing), and AI-1, which was shipped following assurances to investors that requisite testing had been completed, later shown to have been neglected. The company is now distributing another batch of revised, untested batteries to prospective customers. By sanctioning these practices, management may have materially exposed investors to foreseeable financial loss, potentially providing a basis for claims under theories of corporate malpractice, breach of fiduciary duty, or negligence in the oversight of operational processes
ObserverFXX
If achieving 100% silicon-anode batteries were easy, everyone would already be doing it. That’s why the market’s reaction felt disproportionate to what was actually a good—not perfect—earnings call. Enovix announced a major customer name, outlined a realistic path forward, and even hinted at a potential announcement coming at CES in January. You can call Raj a liar if you want, but doing so means accusing the entire company—and a highly respected board—of the same.
There is a clear path ahead. Delays happen constantly with novel, breakthrough technologies; look no further than Tesla, which rarely meets its initial timelines yet still delivers industry-changing products. This wasn’t some outrageous miss. Just as Enovix has slipped on certain deadlines, they’ve also met key ones. The execution isn’t perfect, but the trajectory remains intact.
randallthedane
Raj’s exact words from the Q3 2025 call are worth noting:
“We now have sampled the AI1 platform to 10 unique smartphone OEMs and ODMs, and we expect to showcase the first end product with an OEM publicly in CES 2026 in January.”
That’s not vague marketing language. You don’t announce an OEM end product showcase at CES unless the battery is already at a commercially viable stage and deep into final qualification.
So while skepticism is fair, this statement from Raj strongly suggests that testing is effectively wrapping up and that they’ll be ready to show real hardware alongside an OEM at CES. It’s one of the more concrete signals we’ve gotten.
randallthedane
LOTTOBBOTT
I am a Korean investor.
Two weeks ago, a Korean company named Enchem signed a 1,000-ton electrolyte supply deal with a “California-based battery firm with a factory in Malaysia.” (Sound familiar?) This is a FACT.
The report explicitly states that this electrolyte is a custom-made recipe tailored to the buyer’s specific requirements.
I’m betting my money that they passed the 1,000-cycle test. Unless the CEO is crazy, he wouldn’t buy 1,000 tons of a specialized, custom recipe without finalizing the chemistry.
The recipe is fixed. Production is coming. Good luck to all.
Bullish
Dec 15, 2025 2:18 PM
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ENVX
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Jaymuss
2:28 PM
@LOTTOBBOTT Absurd that the 1000 cycle test is completed. There’s no speeding it up… In the words of Scotty….””Captain I can’t change the laws of physics “” But otherwise if the electrolye order is true and not a sinful lie, that sounds very promising.
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LOTTOBBOTT
2:36 PM
@Jaymuss The source is a specialized Korean tech news report about a major contract secured by Enchem.
The buyer wasn’t explicitly named, but looking at the facts mentioned in the article, it is undeniably $ENVX.
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TropicalWhiplash
4:09 PM
@LOTTOBBOTT @Jaymuss The core info is true —the order is planned and the company is ENVX. The 1000 cycles? No info out there about it
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LOTTOBBOTT
4:32 PM
@TropicalWhiplash @Jaymuss
Even if we strip away the hype and view it conservatively, the conclusion is identical: The CEO is confident in Mass Production.
@Jaymuss
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acerspin
5:27 PM
@LOTTOBBOTT @TropicalWhiplash @Jaymuss Not to be soft bashing, but the CEO was confident of Fab1’s mass production in January 2023, too. I don’t think Raj sounded very confident on the firechat – he knows AI-1 missed its window of opportunity.
Seaweedme
5:29 PM
@LOTTOBBOTT “Enchem–Enovix agreement-
Separate industry commentary has highlighted an electrolyte supply arrangement between Enchem and Enovix, the U.S. silicon‑anode battery company. In that discussion, Enchem is said to be lined up to supply roughly 1,000 tons of electrolyte over three years, with an indicative contract value around 50 million dollars and deliveries starting in 2026 to support Enovix’s planned high‑volume production ramp.[x]
This Enovix‑related deal has been described via secondary reporting and investor commentary that cites Korean media rather than via a joint, formal press release, so it should be treated as indicative until confirmed in company filings or official announcements.” from Perplexity
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acerspin
5:21 PM
@LOTTOBBOTT Where is the press release or regulatory filing by Enchem about the 1,000-ton deal? Enovix has been buying electrolytes from Enchem and others for years – nothing to do with any 1,000 cycles. So, Enovix CEO did not buy 1,000 tons of anything. The little Korean pumpers and dumpers just wanted to prop Enchem’s stock a bit after the accounting disaster (apparently the CATL thing was not enough) … Enovix CEO knows that AI-1 is not going anywhere, and AI-2 is not finalized, so try again!
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WantedToRetireEarly
Follow
@InvestorWisdom at this point given the constant delays and broken promises, this company is a hold at best. Management does not deserve more investment from me and others until they actually deliver. And the big Chinese companies are fast catching up. They don’t have infinite amounts of time either. I am not expecting much from CES. I’m with @acerspin the future of their company depends on shipping the AI-2 and that probably won’t happen until 2027. That’s what I’ll be following closely. And the World Mobile Congress in March is where I hope to hear something. But not holding my breath given past execution delays.
Dec 12, 2025 7:53 PM
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InvestorWisdom
Dec 12, 2025 7:55 PM
@WantedToRetireEarly none of that matters when it comes to making money on catalysts. Those same complaints have been going on for years, but this company puts in multiple big moves each year regardless… maybe CES will amount to nothing, but I expect the stock to be higher before the show, providing a trading opportunity.
… but i’m often wrong 
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WantedToRetireEarly
Dec 12, 2025 8:01 PM
@InvestorWisdom we have all been wrong on this stock which I blame mostly on what management was signaling to investors. Still don’t know why they did that huge raise right after the special distribution. There was talk of some possible great deal and then nothing – except more dilution and delays.
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InvestorWisdom
Dec 12, 2025 8:02 PM
@WantedToRetireEarly and we don’t need a new battery (AI-2) to be in multiple AR glasses. There are benefits to AI-1 that no other battery can provide. Like heat, which is more noticeable when you’re wearing it on your head
It’s also a safer battery and I imagine these glasses can get crushed easier than a phone. The more energy you pack in it, the more dangerous it gets, unless you’re using Enovix 3D architecture 
Dec 12, 2025 8:02 PM
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WantedToRetireEarly
Dec 12, 2025 9:18 PM
@InvestorWisdom we all know their design and tech has tremendous potential. But can it realize that potential is the question. Remember the vast majority of tech startups fail for a reason. It’s almost always much harder than originally anticipated and takes more time and more money.
That has certainly been the case here. Not saying it will fail but as of yet there is also absolutely no guarantee it will succeed given the competition out there. Remains very high risk and very speculative. Invest accordingly.
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ointhebay
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$ENVX based on the fireside chat, the CES is just a demo with their batteries in some smartglasses, but they haven’t received any actual POs for those smartglasses. It’s all just a demo.
InvestorWisdom
9m
$ENVX notice how the PR says “initial” shipments by mid 2025… peeps forget that these batteries were MADE TO FIT in glasses, so they don’t need to be re-engineered like a phone battery…. Phone OEMs get a standard sample size. Then if they like it they have to rebuild the battery to the specific models specs + retest. This is what’s happening with Honor.
This glass battery is already sized and usable within the glasses… Once they proved it was safe to put on people’s heads, they’ve been able to test it in these glasses since July…. and If they’re happy with this initial battery, it’s ready to scale when ready….
Notice how it says “initial”…
InvestorWisdom
30m
$ENVX @ointhebay Relisten to the fireside chat (30:00 mark). He said he hopes that these CES demos go into full volume production…. It doesn’t matter if there’s no PO yet, it could come anytime…
However, if this is part of the “landmark purchase order” announced last January, which has been undergoing validation testing since July, they could already have the PO in hand, right? We don’t know the specifics of this NDA protected purchase order… and they might be timing a PR with the unveiling of the customer’s name at CES. That’s when they can FINALLY disclose and talk freely about them… it could dramatically change the dynamic with this stock= Validation from one of the most successful and intelligent companies on the planet.
If shorts aren’t nervous yet, they should be. lol… 2 screenshots of supporting DD…
Grimpler
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@ointhebay They would not demo it unless the intent was to use the batteries.
Dec 15, 2025 4:09 PM
Stingraystev
On Wednesday Raj announced that the India facility successfully obtained ISO 9001 certification, which means:
– Validation of robust quality processes in its R&D and prototyping operations
– Enhanced credibility with partners and OEMs including smartphone manufacturers
– Alignment with global standards, supporting faster innovation and potential future expansion into qualified production
– Boosted investor and customer confidence in Enovix’s operational maturity across its global footprint.
It will also help in leveraging India’s talent pool for high-quality R&D work.
Dec 16, 2025 3:25 PM
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acerspin
ISO means nothing – Fab1 had ISO 9001, but was malfunctioning so badly that no one was able to fix it. So, ISO was a waste of time – the India R&D team was doing great work, so let’s hope all this paperwork was’t a big distraction for them – they need to finish AI-2 on time.
Shim Seongah
01 Dec.2025 08:23(KST)
On December 1, Enchem announced that it plans to sign a supply contract for electrolytes with a California-based silicon battery manufacturer after more than five years of development. The contract covers the supply of 1,000 tons of electrolytes over three years, from 2026 to 2028. The electrolytes will be produced at Enchem’s Zhangjiagang plant in China and supplied to the customer’s factory in Penang, Malaysia.
Typically, applying just 25% silicon can significantly increase battery capacity. However, the technology to use 100% silicon is considered revolutionary, as it can achieve more than double the energy density compared to conventional batteries.
For this contract, Enchem developed an electrolyte composition that operates stably with a 100% silicon anode and in high-voltage cells of 4.5 volts (V) or higher. While conventional batteries operate at 4.1 to 4.4V, high-voltage technology above 4.5V is rapidly expanding to improve capacity. At higher voltages, electrolyte decomposition occurs more easily, making special solvents and protective film-forming additives essential to suppress this.
Research has continued to increase the proportion of silicon in the anode beyond the capacity limits of graphite, but typically only about 10% could be used stably. By combining with the customer’s innovative cell design, Enchem has implemented electrolyte additive technology that ensures stability even with a 100% silicon anode, thereby securing both reliability and performance.
The contract customer, established in California in 2007, is a lithium-ion battery specialist that manufactures high energy density batteries for IT devices such as smartphones, wearables, and AI glasses. The company leads the industry in advanced silicon anode battery technology and has demonstrated exceptional innovation and competitiveness in targeting specific IT markets, including being the first in the industry to successfully mass-produce 100% silicon anode batteries.
An Enchem representative stated, “With this supply contract, we will strengthen our research personnel for high-performance electrolytes that combine high energy density, fast charging, and safety,” adding, “We will continue to enhance Enchem’s technological competitiveness by expanding the application of our products to a wider range of areas beyond electric vehicles.”
acerspin
Honor has nothing to do with it and an electrolyte deal would not merit an NDA.
Enchem is just a big electrolyte supplier that has faced some business and reporting setbacks recently in the USA. A 1,000-ton binding contract over 3 years with Enovix, even if existed, is just too tiny for Enchem…
Korean pump-and-dump artists fail to realize that AI-2 for phones uses silicon carbon chemistry, the same that ATL has been using since late 2022 for volume shipments, so nothing new had to be invented by any electrolyte supplier… Enovix has been buying and will continue to buy electrolytes from various suppliers, including Enchem. Funny thing, it is exporting the spent Enchem canisters back to South Korea – good for the environment!
I do expect that once AI-2 is finalized and qualified, Enovix will enter in proper supply contracts.
Dec 15, 2025 5:51 PM
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Keaper2014
so ATL has a 100% silicon anode? ATL uses a SiC blended with graphite if I’m not mistaken. Clearly it’s not the same. Raj already said they had a company manufacture their patented electrolytes and the article strongly suggests it’s Enchem. Is it for Honor? Assuming AI-1 passes qualifications and they do the expected limited production run to collect Charge/discharge curves — how the pack behaves under real‑world loads vs. lab curves ; Thermal behavior — heat rise during fast charge, gaming, camera use, RF spikes
Voltage sag under peak load — critical for camera bursts, 5G uplink, gaming
Internal resistance drift — early indicator of cycle‑life trajectory
SOC/SOH estimation accuracy — whether the BMS model matches real behavior, then I expect it will be for Honor and possibly others.
Dec 15, 2025 7:10 PM
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acerspin
Of course ATL has a 100% active (note the active!) silicon anode – graphite is not the only form of carbon. Enovix does not have a 100% silicon anode, although Raj seems confused on that point from time to time (listen to fireside chat again!). Group14 and Sionic wrote a paper just for Keaper, who believes every link he reads:
https://group14.technology/resources/press-releases/sionic-energy-uses-scc55-for-100-silicon-battery/
To summarize, ATL does up to 25% silicon in the anode in volume, according to Honor, and has similar or better performance than Enovix 100% active silicon using the same fundamental silicon carbon chemistry.
Enovix buys standard electrolytes from several suppliers all over the world, not just Enchem. I would like to single out the US-based Elementium, which is near and dear to my heart. However, I admit I have no idea why Enovix needs all those electrolytes for the few samples it ships.
AI-1 is no longer ahead in terms of performance, and has no hope of catching up on costs. AI-2 is a different story.
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Keaper2014
Thank you for pointing out my error in omitting the word “active” from my statement. Yes, when you are making sometimes “wild statements”without any support and contrary to known facts, I like to see the evidence; Otherwise, that just makes you another FUD spewing basher that mixes a little bit of truth with a whole lot of spin. I’m still waiting for any evidence to support your claim that Raj is lying to us and cycle life testing will take 8 months. Your proof, an EU reg that says what specifications are required to be listed not the testing methods or time frames used to determine the specifications. So far, you haven’t provided independent tests to show ATL has any batteries that are equal to or better than what Polaris labs validated on AI-1. Do you have anything other than claims? I got things to do!
Dec 15, 2025 11:19 PM
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acerspin
Raj is not lying about the 8 months – he is being optimistic – optimistic that Honor will not honor the exclusivity with the competitor and will put a small PO for a cell that is not properly tested after the previous one failed qualifications.
We don’t need independent tests about ATL – we have the honor of Honor’s words and actions. Honor says 901 Wh/L in a press release, with over 3x fast charging (90% in 40 minutes, if I remember correctly), 1,200 cycles, for an extra-thin the cell in a flagship that Enovix has no chance of matching with the constraint-architecture. The only way to gain Honor’s business in 2027 is to release AI-2 on time.
Polaris has not validated anything. If it did, you would have had a PO by Honor or the the other OEMs already. Remember, Polaris also validated EX1, just before Enovix discontinued it due to lack of demand. You should ask a bit around about Polaris – they managed to cheat even Elon Musk…
Dec 16, 2025 12:19 AM
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Keaper2014
I almost don’t know where to begin. 1. Raj said 3-4 months you stated 8. 2 You claim ATL has an exclusivity agreement with Honor but provide no evidence of that (I think that would have been big news for ATL, but nothing?) 3 You claim Polaris never validated anything; except of course that the “AI-1 smartphone battery was validated by Polaris Battery Labs as the highest energy density cell ever reported for a smartphone.”
https://finviz.com/news/159283/enovix-corporation-envxs-lithium-batteries-touted-for-higher-energy-density-in-smartphones
Then you try and deflect about some barb on Polaris. And you claim that Polaris also evaluated Ex1M but there’s zero press releases or evidence I can locate to support that. There’s more too but I don’t have time now!
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acerspin
The exclusivity with ATL was done in late 2022, and the big news was Honor’s flagship unveil in March 2023 with a revolutionary battery – Honor presented it as its own, which was not entirely unfair, given its silicon carbon patent and joint development with ATL. Investors learned about it from ATL in November 2023.
Enovix paying Polaris to say false things that contradicted what Honor was saying at the same time doesn’t look good for Enovix relationship with Honor, does it? Let’s just hope that AI-2 will be launched on time – then the past won’t matter…
Polaris did not evaluate EX1M – it did EX1, after previously cheating Mr. Musk:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/11/07/2775546/0/en/Enovix-Batteries-Demonstrate-Highest-Energy-Density-Among-Cells-Evaluated-According-to-Polaris-Battery-Labs.html
I pity Raj and TJ that they have to deal with aggressively ignorant investors…
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Keaper2014
I pity you for thinking actual investors are buying the FUD you are constantly sowing. Making claims that collapse under their own weight and that you can’t support. You hurl your “ignorant investor” at me for asking for proof while ignoring some of the absolutely ignorant unsupported assertions you make or proof you offer that is literally the opposite of proof. Most people have already blocked you because they see you for what you are, lol. It really bothers you when I ask you to support some wild ass claim you make. Thats not confidence, that cowardice! And it’s obvious! I hope you don’t think it’s over!
Dec 16, 2025 5:15 AM
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acerspin
I know I promised not to post much after my travel ended in October, but this is too good to pass. Next time a crazy short tells you that Enovix has never sold a silicon battery, you should point them to this publicly-available proof of sale of 34 eyewear cells EX1M-601241 to $SNAP shipped in February out of Malaysia. The price was $9.8 per cell, a reasonable retail price for batteries of that size (on ebay 601240 cells go for $2 + shipping in that volume). As some of you may remember, $SNAP was an early investor in Enovix and had exclusivity until last year. Snap is an exhibitor at CES, so you could visit and ask them about whether the Enovix cells passed all the tests (not for the showcased product mentioned by Raj, but still useful to get feedback)
https://www.volza.com/company-profile/exports/import-bill-of-lading-56355-0-23818573/
Enovix also shipped about 300 of these cells to Routejade for packaging and 5 cells directly to Japan – it is not clear who those end customers are.
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Raj is so sneaky. Remember when he was asked about AI-1 and he said its performance is somewhere between EX1M and EX2M? I was quite puzzled by that, as EX1M is a silicon suboxide node, while EX2M is the superior, silicon carbon, node, so you can’t really mix and match, assuming both had optimized chemistries.
Turns out AI-1 is indeed just a “marketing” platform – the phone battery samples (two different sizes) are on the latest and greatest EX2M node, while the AI-1 smart glass batteries are on the good old EX1M node – I guess Enovix made too many of those, and customers are ok with putting them in reference designs and prototypes (glasses are likely to break before the 800 cycles are reached – ha!). These two form factors are the only one shipping right now.
AI-2 will be different, of course – game changing for all form factors. Hoping for some hints from the investor events this week.
Dec 10, 2025 2:30 PM
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acerspin
Raj says he plans to promote KOKAM and Routejade’s power cells which have not been updated since 2015 and haven’t been competitive for years, but never mentioned AI-2. 7% doping is not going to help, when the Chinese are churning millions of silicon carbon power cells already and Amprius, pretending to be an American company, is reselling some of those as SiCore to NATO contractors.
So, this call got me concerned. I understand keeping a secret to make the biggest bang for the buck, but he could have mentioned AI-2 at least once. I was getting really good vibes about it from the team working on it during the Summer – oh, well.
Dec 11, 2025 3:34 AM
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Eatons
Dec 11, 2025 4:15 AM
@acerspin why would he randomly bring up AI-2 when the analyst never once asked about anything tangential to it. And why are you so concerned? They have an entire R&D center in India to develop future generations of batteries and you’re “concerned” that they aren’t working on it because he didn’t randomly bring up AI-2 in an interview with an analyst who didn’t ask about it?
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acerspin
Dec 11, 2025 5:10 AM
@Eatons Because AI-2, a game changer, is the only way to win the smartphone business – the competitor silicon carbon cells have caught up with AI-1 and are cheaper to make. Honor has been on the forefront of silicon carbon, and has been using ATL’s cells since early 2023 – it is not waiting for Enovix to get their act together. AI-1 for phones is a rebranded EX2M, based on the samples shipped, so it has been “available” for more than a year, and clearly Honor does not like it enough to put it in a phone.
Raj should have talked about AI-2 instead of promoting the old Korean SLPB cells that go from 400 Wh/L to 450 Wh/L, at best, when doped and can’t compete with Amprius SiCore and similar Chinese and Korean silicon carbon power cells. Those guys don’t do consumer electronics, because they are afraid of ATL, but they own the premium drone space.
If AI-2 is not launched in early March, then Enovix will not have profitable volume production even in 2027.
acerspin
When Honor releases Honor Power 2 in February 2026 with a 10,080 mAh “giant capacity battery” and 80W fast charging, our friend @Keaper2014 is going to go ballistic, because he is still waiting for links confirming Honor’s exclusivity with ATL…
Here is the link in case he missed it:
数码闲聊站
25-12-16 04:12
发布于 北京
独家信息，6.79″2640*1200p 1.5K LTPS直屏，天玑8500处理器，10080mAh±巨容量电池，80W快充，前置16Mp，后置50Mp，代号Saber，雪原白/幻夜黑/旭日橙，续航估计要刷记录的中端机，暂定也是春节前登场。
I am tired of repeating the obvious. AI-1 missed its chance. Yes, there will be some sales of AI-1, but at negative gross margins.
I blame it mostly on the delays in KOSES equipment deliveries, for which Raj is not to blame, as KOSES was initially approved by TJ. But Raj also wasted time on marketing instead of focusing on the product and its qualifications. Let’s hope Raj listens to reason and launches AI-2 in March, or 2026 will be very painful.
Dec 16, 2025 6:19 PM
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Keaper2014
Yesterday 9:35 PM
@acerspin Really!? So I’m “going to go ballistic” because I asked you to back up claims that should be effortless to prove if they were real. Nobody with basic critical thinking accepts statements like “there’s an exclusivity agreement” with no contract or source, or “AI‑1 already failed” while Honor is still running electrolyte tweaks, or “the lab’s results don’t count” with zero evidence. Would you accept someone saying their car gets 200 mpg or their phone battery lasts a week without a single document or test? Of course not. Yet every time I ask for something simple — a press release, a spec sheet, a lab report — you don’t provide it. You pivot, you attack, and you hope nobody notices the missing proof. I’m not “going ballistic.” I’m doing what any rational person does when someone makes big claims with no receipts. 🥱
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acerspin
Yesterday 9:53 PM
@Keaper2014 Honor is not running electrolyte tweaks – it did many years ago when it was part of Huawei and when it was working on figuring out silicon carbon with ATL. You should accept the reality.
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Keaper2014
Yesterday 10:24 PM
@acerspin You jumped on a tiny wording slip and pretended it erased the actual point. Honor is qualifying AI‑1, and Enovix said the electrolyte tweaks were done because Honor asked for them. That’s current. That’s documented. If I wanted to nitpick every error you’ve made, I’d be here all day chasing side‑issues instead of addressing the underlying problem: whenever evidence is needed, you dodge, reframe, or attack instead of backing up your claims. At some point, that pattern speaks for itself, and credibility goes with it.
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acerspin
12:41 AM
@Keaper2014 Oppo was sampling, and presumably qualifying, Enovix phone cells with a 500-cycle life in 2021, according to TJ. How did that turn out? Same with Honor and AI-1.
Honor does not care about electrolytes – although it can certainly teach Enovix some tricks about them from 6 years ago. Honor cares about cells performing within specs, and will continue to buy them from a single source until exclusivity expires or maybe even beyond, if ATL wants to sacrifice its fat margins (because now it has at least 3 credible Chinese competitors). It all depends on whether AI-2 is launched on time. If it is, then we will almost certainly see large, profitable orders by mid 2027. If it isn’t, we will have to pray that Sunwoda and all the rest screw up silicon solid state badly.
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Novo1
Yesterday 7:40 PM
@acerspin @Keaper2014 excellent post! But, Talluri is not the right person! He doesn’t understand marketing and product development go hand-in-hand. It’s a symbiotic relationship.
WantedToRetireEarly
Follow
$ENVX Chinese competition is catching up. As @acerspin has mentioned, its clear that the future success of ENVX really does come down to the AI-2 as the AI-1 does not stand out from what some Chinese phone makers are already shipping. It’s a shame that the numerous delays over the past few years have allowed the competition to catch up.
https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/the-oneplus-15-is-the-latest-spark-in-a-battery-revolution-coming-to-phones/
Exclusive: The OnePlus 15 has the largest battery capacity of any phone sold in the US. And it’s all because of silicon.
The OnePlus 15 Is the Latest Spark in a Battery Revolution Coming to Phones
https://www.cnet.com
Dec 10, 2025 7:56 PM
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Stutwit
Dec 10, 2025 8:14 PM
@WantedToRetireEarly @acerspin They are not catching up, or at least this one isn’t. They get that capacity because the battery is farking huge. In terms of energy density it’s nowhere close.
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Plus
wilberg
Dec 11, 2025 1:23 AM
@WantedToRetireEarly @acerspin there will be many winners
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drankstocks
Dec 10, 2025 8:06 PM
@WantedToRetireEarly @acerspin guess we are not retiring early!
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Jaymuss
Dec 10, 2025 8:18 PM
@WantedToRetireEarly @acerspin At a rating of 7350 mAh seems the AI-1, from your article would pretty much be tied for the lead….I would hope that our patented over heat technology would make the AI-1 a stand out.
Stingraystev
I’m hearing a lot of people talking about how the competition is catching up and what not. What a lot of those people don’t understand is that this market; not one, nor two, nor three suppliers can supply the industry. Just because one is ahead of the other does not mean they will win the entire market share of the industry. I’m noticing a lot of retail “Longs” caving in, and that’s ok, because that’s exactly what Wall Street wants. Just sell and save us the headache of your whining and crying.
We are close.
Bullish
Dec 20, 2025 7:57 PM
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InvestorWisdom
Yesterday 8:47 PM
@Stingraystev when people mention that, they’re only talking about the phone segment. This battery is likely the best for glasses and will be for a long time… it has characteristics which are beneficial when you have a device touching the side of your head, like being safer + cooler. This is important when you’re running AI which requires rapid/powerful energy bursts 
I believe these aspects are going to start getting discussed more after CES. Good odds its in the product marketing… fyi Raj has mentioned these benefits in the earnings calls, based on feedback from the customers.
… and Raj has made the same claim about EV charging. Heat is a major issue if you want to charge a large battery faster
imo these glasses are limited on how much further they can improve the battery using jelly roll architecture. AI-1 could dominate this rapidly growing segment.
another aspect is that these phone battery manufacturers don’t have the capacity (or desire) to make batteries for the majority of segments. This is why most products still use older batteries which are years behind the phone segment. AI-1 has lots of potential to grow within many different segments, they’re just choosing to go after the most difficult/lucrative segment first
Look at these other battery small caps. None of them are pursuing phones (too hard) and they’re worth billions. We don’t need phones to grow, although it would be significant… and most if not all of these battery stocks aren’t coming up with anything dramatically new. They’re just adding more capacity into growing markets for batteries.
In California they are banning gas leaf blowers, lawn mowers etc. The current batteries don’t last long enough for a gardener to work all day. They have to buy a lot of batteries and make sure to charge each night, otherwise they are waiting around and losing money. Enovix could dramatically improve these tools and people would pay more imo. Time is money
AI is impacting everything. Manufacturers are racing to figure out how it can help them gain an edge over their competition… but for them to do so they’re gonna need better batteries.
We focus on phones, glasses etc that use AI, but there is so much more coming… and I don’t think it would be wise for a new product to market dramatically weaker battery life than the model the customer is currently using. Imo they will eventually need to upgrade the battery, even if they have to pay more for it, before their competitor does…
The AI race is heating up in many segments …
Dec 20, 2025 9:37 PM
There are a million+ retailers in the US alone and many of them use several scanners per location. A Walmart location easily has a dozen+.
If AI influences an upgrade cycle for many of these retailers it could be a very lucrative segment for Enovix to be involved in… and Raj mentioned a potential replacement battery that can go into older scanners
… and these batteries likely cost more per unit than phones
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acerspin
@Stingraystev Well, ATL, Sunwoda, and at least two other Chinese do supply the consumer electronics industry perfectly fine, and they all have perfectly good silicon carbon cells with 900+ Wh/L density and 1,000+ cycle life. ATL itself has 60%+ market share in consumer electronics cells with formidable operating margins and technical superiority. So, please do not spread misinformation! Being bullish is one thing, buy trying to mislead is quite another. I am telling you that serious investors are really put off by the clueless comments written here…
AI-1 is finished. As it was explained to you already, Enovix will probably get some orders, but at negative gross margins. Our only hope is that AI-2 will be launched in March – if that doesn’t happen, both 2026 and 2027 will be lost.
Also, don’t put your hopes on the AI-1 eyewear cells! Raj did not tell you that they are actually obsolete EX1M – which is good, as the focus should be on phones. I mean, $SNAP , an investor in Enovix, has been “validating” EX1 and EX1M for nearly 5 years and never put them in a consumer product.
Dec 20, 2025 11:31 PM
The Pentagon and AI giants have a weakness. Both need China’s batteries, badly.
Electrical infrastructure for servers at Meta’s data center in Eagle Mountain, Utah. Data centers can use as much electricity as a small city, straining local power grids.
Electrical infrastructure for servers at Meta’s data center in Eagle Mountain, Utah. Data centers can use as much electricity as a small city, straining local power grids. | CHRISTIE HEMM KLOK / THE NEW YORK TIMES
By Hiroko Tabuchi, Brad Plumer and Harry Stevens
THE NEW YORK TIMES
SHARE/SAVE
Dec 24, 2025
Listen to this article
13 min
In northern Virginia’s Data Center Alley, windowless buildings the size of aircraft hangars are powering the United States’ artificial intelligence industry, which is locked in a race against China.
Yet, these data centers are increasingly reliant on China, the U.S.’s geopolitical rival, for a vital technology: batteries.
These facilities can use as much electricity as a small city, straining local power grids. Even flickers can have cascading effects, corrupting sensitive AI computer coding.
To cope, tech giants are looking to buy billions of dollars of large lithium-ion batteries, a field in which “China is leading in almost every industrial component,” said Dan Wang, an expert on China’s technology sector at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. “They’re ahead, both technologically and in terms of scale.”
A short drive from the data centers, at the Pentagon, military officials are sounding similar warnings, for different reasons. Military strategists, watching as modern warfare is reinvented in Ukraine, say the armed forces will need millions of batteries to power drones, lasers and countless other weapons of the future.
Many of those batteries, too, come from China.
Chinese battery dominance has long been a problem for industries such as auto manufacturing, but now is increasingly being viewed as a national security threat. Currently, U.S. military forces rely on Chinese supply chains for some 6,000 individual battery components across weapons programs, according to Govini, a defense analytics firm.
“The reality is very stark,” Tara Murphy Dougherty, Govini’s CEO, told a recent gathering of top defense and industry officials in California. “There are foreign parts in 100% of our weapon systems and military platforms.”
An aerial view of the Pentagon. As warfare is reinvented in Ukraine, and Silicon Valley races to maintain its lead in artificial intelligence, China’s dominance in battery manufacturing is raising alarms far beyond the auto industry.
An aerial view of the Pentagon. As warfare is reinvented in Ukraine, and Silicon Valley races to maintain its lead in artificial intelligence, China’s dominance in battery manufacturing is raising alarms far beyond the auto industry. | KENNY HOLSTON / THE NEW YORK TIMES
China understands the importance of these batteries. On Oct. 9, amid growing trade disputes, China threatened to limit exports of some of its most advanced lithium-ion technologies, including fundamental components including graphite anodes and cathodes.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is facing a dilemma.
When Trump came to office, his administration initially froze billions of dollars in federal grants approved by that of his predecessor, Joe Biden, for battery manufacturing, lumping batteries in with electric vehicles, solar farms, wind turbines and other clean energy technologies the new president had sought to de-emphasize. He has been scornful of electric cars, calling them a “scam.”
Yet more recently, the administration has come to see battery technology as pivotal for many of the things it cares most about, including AI and defense. In interviews, more than a dozen battery-industry executives, lobbyists, military experts and others close to the administration said the White House had taken a growing interest in fostering a domestic battery industry disentangled from China.
In recent weeks the White House has held high-level meetings on the battery supply chain, according to three people familiar with the matter. The National Energy Dominance Council, which Trump established to coordinate energy policy, has been meeting with battery companies. The Energy Department has quietly allowed many Biden-era grants for battery makers to proceed. It also recently announced up to $500 million for battery materials and recycling projects.
The administration has started investing in companies that develop battery components or critical minerals, including Eos, a next-generation battery company. As part of a trade deal, officials prodded Japan to promise to invest billions of dollars in U.S. battery manufacturing. And the National Defense Authorization Act, passed this month, includes Pentagon restrictions on battery purchases from “foreign entities of concern,” primarily China.
The administration is saying “we don’t like electric vehicles, but we do need batteries for drones and data centers and AI,” said Samm Gillard, executive director and co-founder of the Battery Advocacy for Technology Transformation Coalition, a trade group. “They’re recognizing that China’s stranglehold on the battery supply chain is undermining our national security.”
Taylor Rogers, a White House spokesperson, said Trump was “deploying all aspects of the government to work closely together” to “ensure the U.S. is the global leader in critical mineral and battery production.”
Tools such as night vision goggles rely on batteries to the extent that the average soldier carries as much as 11 kilograms of batteries on a standard patrol.
Tools such as night vision goggles rely on batteries to the extent that the average soldier carries as much as 11 kilograms of batteries on a standard patrol. | KENNY HOLSTON / THE NEW YORK TIMES
Experts say that building an industry not dependent on China will be enormously difficult. China is dominant in lithium iron phosphate batteries, or LFP, preferred for both EVs and for stationary storage.
In 2024, China made 99% of the world’s LFP cells and more than 90% of the main components, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). That dominance extends to the refining of raw materials including lithium and graphite, as well as to fundamental components such as cathodes and anodes that drive the movement of electrons within batteries.
The United States has its own lithium deposits and battery startups. But experts say it may take a coordinated effort and government support to compete against heavily subsidized Chinese competitors. Refining critical minerals can also be a hazardous process, and U.S. environmental standards could make the process much more expensive than in China.
Analysts estimate it would take at least half a decade for U.S. manufacturers to produce enough LFP cells to meet domestic demand, and much longer to create supply chains for underlying components.
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, likened the world’s reliance on China to Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas. After Russia attacked Ukraine, there were concerns that Moscow would cut supply.
“Reliance for a strategic commodity or a technology on one single country, one single trade route,” Birol said, “is always risky.”
The dilemma represents a shift in the AI race, which increasingly hinges on a nation’s electrical infrastructure — its ability to reliably deliver vast amounts of electricity to power-hungry data centers — as much as on computing chips.
“Electricity is not simply a utility,” AI giant OpenAI said in an October letter. “It’s a strategic asset that will secure our leadership on the most consequential technology since electricity itself.”
A Ukrainian soldier practices operating a battery-powered drone in the Sumy region. Among the lessons from the war in Ukraine is a daunting realization: The future of military power rests with batteries.
A Ukrainian soldier practices operating a battery-powered drone in the Sumy region. Among the lessons from the war in Ukraine is a daunting realization: The future of military power rests with batteries. | BRENDAN HOFFMAN / THE NEW YORK TIMES
Battery dominance is a big part of China’s growing lead in power generation overall, including renewable energy. China has long seen batteries as an industrial and military priority, according to Wang, the Hoover Institution expert.
AI experts say U.S. companies still lead in computing capacity. Yet there is a rising concern that China’s advantage in energy infrastructure could help the country pass the United States.
“I’ve called AI ‘Manhattan Project 2,’” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in September, referring to America’s effort in the 1940s to make nuclear weapons. If “China got meaningfully ahead of us in AI, we’d become the secondary nation of the planet,” he added.
Why data centers want batteries
The engineers who keep data centers humming refer to the “five nines” of reliability. That is, they strive to keep the facilities online 99.999% of the time.
Doing so demands reliable power. Tech giants have been scrambling for energy from natural gas or existing nuclear plants, which can run at all hours, and are making bets on nascent technologies such as smaller reactors or advanced geothermal plants.
“It’s get what you can get,” said Justin Gruetzner, an executive with Burns & McDonnell, a data center engineering firm.
Batteries are increasingly critical: Most data centers rely on them for backup. Batteries can provide instantaneous power in an outage while generators fueled by natural gas or diesel fire up, helping ensure that data isn’t lost.
AI has particularly immense energy needs. An AI query can require about 10 times the electricity of traditional internet searches, the Electric Power Research Institute estimates. And the vast computing power can cause significant fluctuations in energy demand.
Power “can fluctuate dramatically multiple times a minute,” said Chris Brown, chief technical officer at the Uptime Institute, a data center advisory body. At scale, these swings can amount to tens or hundreds of megawatts and even damage power grid infrastructure, Microsoft researchers have warned.
Even minor disruptions can lead to what’s known as “silent data corruption,” an emerging concern where AI hardware produces calculation errors. During one experiment, “a silent data corruption error actually broke the model,” said Jeffrey J. Ma, lead author of a paper on the phenomenon.
The lithium-ion batteries that China dominates are becoming increasingly prevalent. In February, Google said that it had installed more than 100 million cells across its data centers and had started to replace diesel generators with batteries. Microsoft said it aimed for its data centers to eliminate diesel fuel for backup by 2030 to meet environmental goals.
Batteries and the realities of war
Among the lessons from the horrors of Ukraine is a daunting realization: The future of military power rests with batteries.
Many battlefield drones are powered with lithium batteries that rely on materials and technology from China. Within Ukraine, Chinese export controls have slowed production and tripled the prices for some components, according to defense analysts.
“Every Chinese export restriction since 2022 has reverberated directly onto the battlefield,” said Catarina Buchatskiy, a defense expert at the Snake Island Institute, which focuses on military technology. The U.S. could soon face the problem, she said, adding that the kinds of components Ukraine has struggled to secure “are embedded across Western defense programs.”
Lasers, hand-held radios, night vision goggles, satellites and drones use advanced batteries. The average soldier carries as much as 11 kilograms of batteries for a standard 72-hour patrol.
And the shift toward stealthier vehicles, unmanned systems, electronic warfare and constellations of small satellites has swelled demand, said Jeffrey Nadaner, who was deputy assistant defense secretary for industrial policy during the first Trump administration. Shoring up the U.S. battery industry, he said, merits an effort on par with “the Apollo space program.”
The Pentagon is paying attention. The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act mandated a new battery strategy, and in a white paper published this year, the Defense Logistics Agency said the department should treat battery technology as mission-critical.
Elaine Dezenski, an expert on geopolitical risk and supply-chain security at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said, “When we think about the future of manufacturing and defense, and how we should be protecting critical supply chains, the chips are the brain, and batteries are the heart.”
Battery companies go to Washington
In 2024, the startup Group14 Technologies won a $200 million Biden administration grant to build a factory in Moses Lake, Washington, to produce a substitute for graphite, a key material that today mostly comes from China. But after Trump took office, Group14’s grant got tied up in a broader effort by the administration to freeze clean energy funding.
After an extensive review, the Energy Department allowed many battery grants to move forward “because the administration recognized that this isn’t about left versus right or green versus not green,” Group14 CEO Rick Luebbe said.
Still, he said, the factories that Group14 is building will be able to displace only a fraction of Chinese materials. To compete with China’s industrial subsidies, Washington would need to do more. “I see more tolerance for battery projects. What I don’t see is investment,” he said.
Other battery companies have noticed the administration’s new receptiveness. “The Biden administration liked our sustainability story,” said Judy Brown, head of external affairs at South32, a company that has received federal support to develop an Arizona mine for manganese, a key battery material. “The Trump administration likes the national-security story.”
One question, experts say, is whether the United States can sustain a domestic industry, even as sales of electric vehicles slow, undermined by Trump’s policies.
Trump officials have “softened their tone on batteries,” said Noah Gordon, an expert on sustainability and geopolitics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“But the policy is still incoherent” because of its hostility toward EVs, he said. “They’re trying to boost battery manufacturing while also undermining the biggest sources of demand.”
Stingraystev
I just listened to the fireside chat again, and I can honestly say I am more bullish than ever. I’m not sure why a lot of people were complaining, I’m assuming the only reason is because the delay which is due to the customer testing the sample.
A lot of retail, and most people in general nowadays are use to the immediate results/satisfaction. It is not going to work that way with this one. This is a high performance and high technology unit they are CREATING along with the machines they are using to create them. The first of its kind.
If you haven’t listened to the interview with Raj, or have the attention span of a goldfish. I HIGHLY recommend you listen. It’s much better than listening to the soft bashers like acer and others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFanskKFamA
acerspin
To be competitive and command high gross margins, the phone AI-2 will have to have something like 1) 1,000+ Wh/L and 1,500 cycle life both measured at -0.2C discharge, 2) support of 100W fast charge, 3) a 5-year or longer calendar life supported by accelerated data, 4) lower cost of manufacturing than that of EX2M. There are considerable tradeoffs and flexibility around those requirements, but it should look something like that.
I also see a low chance of Honor ordering AI-1 now because Honor has accelerated its roadmap. if Enovix launches AI-2 on time, then I expect the first large order in March 2027.
The phone business offers high volumes and high margins for an independent cell maker, and should be the sole focus of Enovix at least until it reaches 50 million cells a year. By then, economies of scales will allow it to enter the other large segments profitably. AI-2 should be able to address all markets, but some like automotive have longer qualification cycles.
Jan 01, 2026 4:07 PM
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WantedToRetireEarly
It will be a miracle if this happens. What odds do you give ENVX at this point. 20%?
acerspin
The odds of AI-2 being released on time? I don’t know how to estimate them – the team sounded upbeat earlier, but Raj failed to mention it on the fireside chat and is still wasting time with CES instead of paying for exhibitor space at MWC… Maybe it will be a last moment thing – once the long-term cycle life data is in, they will have a large multi-dimensional matrix of tradeoffs to choose from, and the decision can be taken in a day.
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shopno
Appreciate the inputs. Same as you, I feel very low probability of AI-1 landing in Honor’s or any phone OEM battery in 2026. As the chemistry changes happen to AI-1 July samples, it becomes very unpredictable that the new samples will meet all specs of Honor, which would lead Honor further testing of AI-1 samples altogether.
On front of AI-2, I am very less confident ENVX can deliver a 1000+ Wh/L density with 1500 cycles, while AI-1 July samples failed mere 1000 cycles testing. A 50% jumps in cycles between AI-1 and AI-2 simply not realistic IMO.
The more the timeline pushed out for phone PO landing, the higher probability $ENVX getting kicked out phone batteries business. TAM shrinkage would collapse ENVX valuation.
randallthedane
$ENVX @acerspin any significant shift in your intel on this? OR are you still leaning towards this as what will be featured at CES? You sound like you know your stuff but respectfully, I’m genuinely perplexed if you are a true player in this space with actual quality intel or if it is all smoke and mirrors.
acerspin
Dec 01, 2025 3:43 PM
$ENVX Somebody who follows Google, mixed reality, and CES closer than I do told me that the end product most likely to be showcased with Enovix at CES is not a gadget, but a software system. The battery will be powering a gadget running that software, but that gadget will be just a reference design and not an actual end product that consumers can buy in a store next year. Anyone can confirm? I know this is very sneaky, but not unexpected from Raj.
Jan 03, 2026 5:15 PM
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acerspin
5:49 PM
@randallthedane Remember, initially we thought it would be some kind of powerbank connecting to a headset, but then my sources who know CES and AR/VR/MR/XR better than I do told me they expected a reference design for glasses showing Android XR as the end product. This has been reinforced by the type of AI-1 eyewear cells shipped last year – they are simply the old EX1Ms with the standard dimensions for wearable reference designs such as glasses, bluetooth headphones, etc … Enovix prioritized the phone AI-1, a rebranded EX2M, for phones rather than anything else last year and was mostly shipping to China …
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randallthedane
54m
@acerspin This is where I get hung up. Raj’s actual wording was that Enovix would showcase a finished end product with a partner at CES. That seems at least somewhat inconsistent with a pure reference design thesis. Are you drawing a distinction between a finished demonstration product versus a finished commercial product?
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acerspin
29m
@randallthedane Yup, Android XR is a finished end product – an operating systm. Raj never said that the end product to be showcased with Enovix battery at CES is a hardware device. The hardware device with an Enovix cell would be a reference design, not an end product, and can accept all kinds of cells of similar size.
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randallthedane
15m
@acerspin @quanahparker @GrizzlyBearTurd
I think this is where we’re talking past each other. Android XR may be a finished software product, but Raj’s comment was specifically about Enovix showcasing an end product using its battery with a partner at CES. To me that implies a battery enabled hardware implementation, not just an OS demo. Again, maybe this miscomm is due to our idea of marketing language being very much different. We will know soon enough…
2
GrizzlyBearTurd
4m
@randallthedane @acerspin @quanahparker that is exactly what Raj said in the Canaccord chat. That is why I don’t put too much faith in acer’s “sources.” In any case we will know the truth soon enough.
GrizzlyBearTurd
5:37 PM
@randallthedane @acerspin his rhetorical style reveals all you need to know. Speaks louder than the actual details he shares, which do attest to fluency with the material. Clearly a smoke and mirrors sheister.
TDMF123
Everything I’m reading says they will announce customer/partnership with either Honor or another OEM at CES.
Some are evening saying META but rumors are abound as you can imagine.
Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Bullish
Jan 03, 2026 5:41 PM
acerspin
6:36 PM
@TDMF123 You are reading fiction. Enovix cannot announce anything at CES – it is not an exhibitor and it is against the CES rules for it to make any announcements there. Meta publicly stated that it is going to use metal can cells in its smartglasses in the foreseable future, and Enovix simply cannot make those. Enovix cells are in reference designs of Snap and Qualcomm/Google.
Edge
TDMF123
44m
@acerspin From what I gather they can still do PR just not a CES stage presentation, CES-branded product launch or booth reveal. Essentially they can announce before, during, or after CES week through standard corporate channels.
acerspin
38m
@TDMF123 Anyone can do a PR, but any mention of CES, especially a booth, will ban Enovix from CES for years, and Samira may be kicked out of the Consumer Technology Association Board of Industry Leaders.
Stingraystev
Is Enovix the “NVIDIA of Batteries”? The fear of bankruptcy is gone. $ENVX is now trading as a “De-Risked Manufacturer” heading into the biggest hardware ramp since Tesla’s Model S.
Here is a deep dive on the valuation, tech, and 2026 setup.The Catalyst: On-device AI (Apple Intelligence/Gemini) is creating a power crisis. ⚡️
AI spikes phone power usage by ~20%. Standard graphite batteries physically cannot hold enough charge without overheating. The industry needs a solution by 2026. The Solution: Enovix.
Their 100% silicon anode + 3D architecture offers ~30% more density than graphite.
Crucially, it’s the only high-silicon solution ready for mass production now. They solved the safety issues that held silicon back for a decade. The Shield. The bear case was “they will run out of cash.” That is over. As of Q3 2025, $ENVX has a ~$648 Million fortress balance sheet. They can run Fab-2 through 2027 without dilution. The death spiral risk is dead.
Jan 04, 2026 8:53 AM
The question shifted from “Can they build it?” to “Can they hit 90% yield?”
Fab-2 in Malaysia is live. The high-volume “Zone 4” lines are running. They are no longer a science experiment;they are a manufacturer entering the “J-Curve.” The Signal: Positive Gross Margins. 📈
Most hardware startups bleed cash for years. Enovix posted 21% Gross Margins (Non-GAAP) in Q3 2025 before massive volume hit.
This proves the unit economics actually work.
Buying hardware stocks after they prove positive margins but before revenue explodes captures the “Scale” phase. We saw this with enph in 2019 and tsla in 2013. $ENVX just flashed the same signal.
The Growth:
We are in the transition year ($30M ’25 rev). 2026 is the ramp (~$80M-$100M). 2027 is the explosion ($300M+). The growth curve is about to go vertical as multiple smartphone wins stack up.The Main Event: The EX-1M battery. 📱
They are in “Commercial Qualification” with a top-tier OEM for a 2026 launch.
The moment that customer name is revealed (likely at a launch event), the stock likely re-rates immediately. The Floor: Defense & IoT.
The US Army buys Enovix cells because BrakeFlow™ tech makes them non-flammable.
This provides high-margin, sticky revenue that de-risks the business while we wait for the smartphone explosion.Valuation:
P/E is irrelevant. This is a binary growth stock.
At ~$11.50, it trades at ~24x 2026 sales. Expensive? Maybe. But it’s only ~7x potential 2027 sales. You are paying for the future slope of the chart.
Hypothetical 2027 Price Targets ($350M Rev):
• 8x Sales (Fair Value) = ~$13.25 • 12x Sales (Hyper-Growth) = ~$20.00
At ~$11.50, the market is pricing in moderate success, but not a home run yet.
Risks remain for the Speculator:
Yield Ramp: If Fab-2 stalls at 60% yield, costs balloon.
Delays: If the lead OEM pushes launch to 2027, the stock takes a hit.
This is not a risk-free trade.
The Verdict:
Today at ~$8, $ENVX is a Speculative Buy.
The balance sheet is fixed. The factory is built. The margins are positive. The risk has shifted from “Financial” to “Operational.
The “Table Pounder” Zone:
Under $9 level, you are essentially buying the $648M cash pile + the patent portfolio for free. The growth option becomes zero cost.
Summary:
If AI phones need better batteries, $ENVX is the only pure-play bet. The $648M cash shield makes it safer than ever.
Disclaimer: Long $ENVX. Info only, NOT financial advice. Do your own DD.
InvestorWisdom
20260105 8:57 PM
If Enovix succeeds, other battery manufacturers are going to be crushed. No one else can use this 3-D architecture, it’s heavily patented. If this becomes the must have new battery competitors are gonna lose billions. Potentially bankrupt
These competitors can’t risk losing even a small percentage of their market. They’ve invested in significant scale… this is a BIG reason for competitors to hate Enovix
If ‘spin’ was JUST interested in the battery segment, he would be posting on these other battery stocks as well, sharing his industry knowledge, but he’s ONLY focused on ONE battery stock… and constantly trying to discredit EVERYTHING they do.
But ultimately it’s not up to ‘spin’. Success or failure is dependent on the company, which is why I put him on ignore. Nothing he says can change the outcome. I don’t need his ‘spin’ to make money here
As i often say: Trade the frequent large percentage swings until they get their shit together, then go long. Lots of $$$ to make here
Stingraystev
On August 27, 2025 Enovix released a PR saying that Polaris tested their batter and their average volumetric energy density was 919 Wh/L, which was among the highest ever reported for a smartphone battery.
Today, with the tweaks presumably made to meet Xiaomi Redmi Model: BM68 / Honor’s battery specificationshas confirmed their average volumetric energy density at 935 Wh/L, outperforming the leading smartphone battery tested by 12%.
Five months after the original testing was announced, ENVX has a clear lead with smartphone batteries in average volumetric energy density, and the lead should only widen with AI-2, AI-3, etc.
PO’s OTW.
The future is bright!
You Won’t Be Able to Escape Smart Glasses in 2026
Meta is betting big on AI eyewear, with production of its Ray-Ban collaboration expected to hit 10 million pairs annually by the end of the year. But will the tech-ified accessory ever actually be considered cool?
CES 2026 made one thing clear: smart glasses are no longer a niche experiment, they’re rapidly evolving into a mainstream category with serious innovation, big partnerships, and compelling use cases. From gaming-focused specs to next-gen waveguides, the show floor and private suites were buzzing with announcements that signal a transformative year ahead for augmented reality (AR) and extended reality (XR).
More brands are jumping in—thanks to a mature supply chain. The technology and supply chain have matured to the point where reference designs are readily available. This means companies can make minimal changes to existing designs and still deliver competitive products.
This evolution lowers the barrier to entry, accelerates innovation, and ensures consumers will have more options at different price points. It’s a sign that smart glasses are moving from early adopter tech to a broader consumer category.
While “AI” is the default answer to the question of smart glasses’ purpose, CES showcased a broader range of practical applications:
Payments on the go: Rokid demonstrated glasses capable of mobile payments, hinting at a future where wallets become obsolete.
Fitness integration: Brands like Amazfit and Meta displayed workout stats in real time, turning glasses into personal trainers.
Health tracking: Even Realities G2, announced before CES, now integrates health metrics via the R1 ring.
Smarter AI assistants: AI isn’t just answering questions anymore, it’s actively listening and interjecting with relevant information when needed.
20260120
Enovix announced a leadership transition in its operations organization, including the planned retirement of its Chief Operating Officer, as the company prepares to commence mass production. The transition reflects Enovix’s focus on proven, high-volume battery manufacturing leadership as it moves toward sustained production for smartphone, smart eyewear, and defense applications.
–Global Manufacturing Operations will be led by Senior Vice President Kihong Park, who has overseen Enovix’s Korea manufacturing operations since 2023. Kihong brings more than two decades of global battery manufacturing, quality, and operations leadership, with deep experience scaling lithium-ion battery production across Asia, Europe, and North America. Since joining Enovix, he and his organization have strengthened regional operations, integrated acquired manufacturing assets, and delivered consistent year-over-year growth across Enovix’s Korea battery business while improving operational rigor and yield performance. This performance supported approximately 38% revenue growth for the company overall in 2025, based on our preliminary unaudited financial results for 2025. He has also spent significant time over the past year working closely with teams in Penang, Malaysia to support operational readiness and scale-up activities. Kihong’s expanded role reflects Enovix’s commitment to proven battery manufacturing leadership as the company transitions to higher-volume production.
–Advanced Manufacturing Engineering (AME) responsible for the design, build, and support of the proprietary equipment used to manufacture Enovix batteries — will report directly to the Chief Executive Officer, reflecting the strategic importance of AME in driving manufacturability, throughput, and cost efficiency at scale. To lead AME into its next phase, Enovix has hired Ed Casey as Vice President, Operations. Ed brings decades of experience leading high-volume manufacturing and technology scale-ups across multinational environments, including Southeast Asia. His background includes senior leadership roles at Komag, Seagate, Western Digital, and most recently ams OSRAM, where he consistently delivered manufacturing efficiency, automation, and operational scale across complex production networks. Ed’s appointment adds seasoned, world-class manufacturing leadership as Enovix prepares to ramp multiple production lines.
–The AME organization will also be strengthened by the addition of Sanghyuck Park, who joins Enovix as Senior Director, Advanced Manufacturing Engineering. Sanghyuck brings over 30 years of experience from LG Electronics’ Production Technology Center and deep expertise in battery production equipment, global equipment standardization, and process optimization. An inventor with multiple international patents in battery manufacturing equipment, Sanghyuck has led large-scale equipment deployments across Korea, China, Poland, and the United States. His experience is expected to accelerate line deployment, standardization, and repeatability as Enovix transitions from qualification to sustained production ramp across multiple geographies.
“These leadership changes reflect the importance of combining all our battery manufacturing under one experienced leader,” Dr. Talluri added. “We are entering a pivotal year for Enovix. As we prepare to commence mass production of our silicon-anode batteries for smartphones, smart eyewear, and other IoT markets in Malaysia, we are aligning our leadership around proven high-volume battery expertise, disciplined execution, and rapid scale-up. With KH’s track record in Korea, Ed’s world-class manufacturing experience, and a strengthened AME team, we are excited about the momentum we are building and our ability to execute with speed, precision, and operational excellence.”
==========================
Stingraystev
New hire Ed Casey:
Operational Transition: Hired specifically to facilitate Enovix’s transition to mass production as the current COO prepares for retirement.
Casey has decades of experience leading HVM and tech scale-ups within complex multinational environments, specifically in Southeast Asia. His career includes senior leadership roles at several major technology and hardware firms:
ams OSRAM, VP Operations. Most recent role where he focused on manufacturing efficiency and operational scale
Western Digital: Senior Director, Plant Manager
Solopower: COO
Seagate: Executive Director, Substrate Development
Komag: COO and VP
Key Credentials & Expertise
Mass Production Scaling: Extensive background in driving manufacturability and throughput for high-volume production lines.
Proven track record in implementing automation across production networks to improve efficiency.
Regional Expertise: Significant experience managing large-scale manufacturing operations in Southeast Asia (covers Malaysia ofc).
Jan 20, 2026 10:16 PM
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Eatons
Yesterday 10:29 PM
@Stingraystev this is all just part of the elaborate coverup Raj and the board have engineered to fool us into thinking that the battery works and they’re going to manufacture it this year. Makes total sense. Because the alternative is that they aren’t lying, and who would believe that.
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tjc5152
Yesterday 10:42 PM
@Stingraystev doesn’t seem like someone who would join a scam 😂
ObserverFXX
Anyone with capital at risk should be asking why an executive hand‑picked by TJ Rodgers, whom Rodgers publicly said he once tried to recruit when he was at Cypress and who went on to serial promotions over 23 years at AMD is willing to leave money on the table before clearing meaningful commercial milestones. Rodgers said he tried to hire Marathe as a senior ops leader at Cypress, but AMD “won that battle” and kept him rising through operations roles for over two decades. Senior operators don’t walk away before PO, revenue, or customer‑qualification inflection points unless their internal view of those milestones has shifted. Exiting before those validations suggests timelines are slipping or the probability of hitting them has been re‑rated lower which for a pre‑revenue story stock is a BRIGHT NEON WARNING sign.⚠️⚠️⚠️
Jan 20, 2026 8:05 PM
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Stingraystev
Steve Crawford
AJay 2 years ago he will give it his all and when the line is ready he will retire. He worked close to 20 hours a day, but of course shorts will make up stories, but building a company people excel at different phases of growth. This was a planned retirement and the candle is lit.
Sustained production ramp across multiple geographies otw!
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UrQuattro
Yesterday 9:11 PM
@Stingraystev @ObserverFXX where did he specifically say that he would retire?
Stingraystev
@UrQuattro @ObserverFXX I remember hearing it somewhere a while back.
He’s also 64 years old has 919,000 shares of Enovix plus options. He’s worked a long career at high level positions at AMD , Solaria, Lumileds, Western digital, and Enovix. Time for him to enjoy his life and his family.
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ObserverFXX
The Reality Behind the “Testing” Game : When Companies Play the Long Con
In the world of product development and manufacturing, there’s a well-worn strategy that companies often fall back on when things aren’t going according to plan: the testing phase. This might sound like standard procedure, but sometimes, it’s less about finding solutions and more about buying time, especially when things aren’t looking good.
When ENVX failed initial sample testing with Honor, only to “tweak” it and send it back for another round of tests. Raj assured everyone that if this second round didn’t work, they had backups for the backups. But here’s the catch: what if they know it won’t work at all? (ie Ajay leaving)
Let’s be honest, if they know the product isn’t feasible to manufacture or the solution isn’t going to come through, why not just send all the backups from the start? Why stretch out the testing process as if there’s some secret fix on the way?
The truth is, this so-called “testing” might just be a convenient way to keep up appearances and avoid showing cracks in the foundation, especially in front of investors.
After all, investors want to see progress. They want to believe that things are still moving forward, that challenges are being tackled head-on, and that solutions are just around the corner. In reality, these rounds of testing could just be a way to buy time, time to find a real solution, rework the entire product, or, in some cases, reframe the problem to minimize damage.
It’s easy to see why companies do this. Product failure can be a massive blow to a brand, both financially and in terms of public perception. Instead of admitting that the product or the process simply isn’t viable, dragging out the testing phase buys crucial time to rework the narrative and keep investors at bay. The problem is that it’s a risky game; eventually, people start to see through the act if nothing changes.
Jan 27, 2026 2:51 AM
tjc5152
the longer I think about it the more bullish I feel about the new hires. These guys wouldn’t join a sinking ship… and they wouldn’t be hired just to continue to scam just not practical in any way.