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Bitfarms

January 30, 2026 - By 

Bitfarms’ Power Pivot: Trading Hashrate for HPC Infrastructure Value

By EveryTicker Research | Published on November 26, 2025

Bitfarms is a North American infrastructure company transitioning from Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing (HPC) and AI data center provider. It leverages ownership of power generation assets to build next-gen GPU-optimized data centers, pioneering the HPC pivot amidst surging compute demand and power shortages.

Executive Summary / Key Takeaways

  • Bitfarms is executing a strategic metamorphosis from Bitcoin miner to North American HPC/AI infrastructure provider, transforming its 1.4 gigawatt power portfolio from a cost center into the primary value driver.
  • The simultaneous Stronghold acquisition and Yguazu divestiture in early 2025 rebalanced the company toward U.S. power generation assets with immediate HPC conversion potential, creating a multi-year development pipeline in Pennsylvania.
  • Bitcoin mining operations generate approximately $8 million in monthly free cash flow, funding the HPC buildout without equity dilution, while the Bitcoin 2.1 program monetizes treasury through derivatives to further support infrastructure investment.
  • Management is leapfrogging current GPU architecture to build Vera Rubin-ready data centers, targeting 2027 lease rates of $150+ per kilowatt-month versus $120 for legacy infrastructure, capturing the supply-demand imbalance in next-generation compute.
  • Execution risk on complex site conversions and construction timelines represents the critical variable: delays in energizing Panther Creek or Washington facilities could compress the valuation window before mining economics correct in 2026.

Setting the Scene: The Bottleneck Is Power, Not Silicon

Founded in 2017 in Toronto, Bitfarms spent its first six years executing a straightforward Bitcoin mining strategy: secure cheap power, deploy ASICs , accumulate Bitcoin. This model worked until the 2024 halving compressed margins and revealed a structural truth that would redefine the company’s trajectory. While the market obsessed over hashrate and Bitcoin holdings, Bitfarms recognized that its real assets—the power purchase agreements, generation facilities, and strategically located energy infrastructure—were becoming exponentially more valuable in an AI-driven world. The investment thesis hinges on a simple but powerful observation: compute demand is surging at 8.8% annually, GPU shipments will reach 100 gigawatts by 2030, but data center infrastructure cannot keep pace, creating a 45 gigawatt power shortfall. In this new paradigm, owners of power assets capture the economics, not just miners of cryptocurrency.

Bitfarms operates at the intersection of energy and compute, a position it deliberately engineered through two transformative transactions in Q1 2025. The acquisition of Stronghold Digital Mining (SDIG) brought three Pennsylvania power generation campuses with 665 megawatts of capacity and immediate high-performance computing (HPC) development opportunities. Concurrently, the sale of the 200-megawatt Yguazu site in Paraguay—purpose-built for Bitcoin mining with no HPC conversion potential—allowed the company to avoid $100+ million in capital expenditures while redeploying capital toward U.S. growth. This portfolio rebalancing shifted the asset base from 50% U.S. power to nearly 80%, reduced average power costs to $0.043 per kilowatt-hour, and created a development pipeline where every megawatt could eventually service AI workloads at 3-4x the revenue intensity of Bitcoin mining.

The company’s place in the value chain has fundamentally changed. Bitfarms is no longer competing solely in the commodity business of Bitcoin block rewards. Instead, it is building the physical infrastructure layer that hyperscalers and AI companies desperately need but cannot quickly source. Pennsylvania’s emergence as an AI hub—attracting over $90 billion in investments from Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), Blackstone (BX), and CoreWeave—positions Bitfarms’ Panther Creek campus at the center of a geographic cluster with robust fiber infrastructure (eight metro networks) and a cooler climate that enables industry-leading Power Usage Effectiveness (PuE) of 1.2-1.3 versus 1.4-1.5 in Texas. This translates directly into more revenue-generating compute per megawatt, a structural cost advantage that matters deeply when infrastructure owners are capturing the economic surplus from GPU operators earning 80-90% direct margins.

History with Purpose: The Strategic Architecture of a Pivot

Bitfarms’ transformation began in Q4 2023 with the Synthetic HODL program, a pilot initiative that sold Bitcoin to fund operations while preserving upside through call options. This evolved into Bitcoin One in Q1 2025 and subsequently Bitcoin 2.1, a quantitative multi-strategy program that CFO Jonathan Mir explicitly states is “not operating as a Bitcoin treasury company.” The goal is not accumulation but optimization: offsetting production costs and achieving higher value per Bitcoin sold to fund energy infrastructure investments. This demonstrates capital discipline at a time when many miners were hoarding Bitcoin at market peaks, and it provides a low-cost, low-risk funding mechanism that avoids the dilution of equity raises or the restrictive covenants of traditional debt.

The Stronghold acquisition and Yguazu sale represent the largest M&A deal between two public miners in industry history, but their significance extends beyond headlines. Stronghold’s power generation facilities in PJM Interconnection give Bitfarms something no pure-play miner possesses: control over energy pricing through generation, curtailment, and demand response programs. Ben Gagnon notes these assets are “worth significantly more” due to surging power demand and record capacity auctions, providing downside protection and optimization for free cash flow. This control transforms energy from a variable cost into a strategic asset that can be monetized multiple ways—selling power to the grid at peak prices, mining Bitcoin when prices are low, or leasing infrastructure to AI customers at premium rates.

The decision to shut down Argentina operations by November 2025, expected to yield $18 million in proceeds, further de-risks the portfolio. While the closure removes approximately 1 exahash of hashrate, it eliminates site remediation liabilities, recovers prepaid deposits, and reduces lease expenses—cash that can be redeployed to Pennsylvania. The move also improves fleet-wide KPIs: energy efficiency up 1%, average electricity price improved 2%, direct hash costs improved 5%, and uptime up 2%. This demonstrates that pruning underperforming assets enhances the quality of remaining operations, a level of portfolio management “unheard of in our industry,” according to Gagnon.

Technology and Strategic Differentiation: Building for Vera Rubin

Bitfarms’ HPC strategy rests on a contrarian but strategically sound decision: leapfrogging NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Blackwell architecture to develop infrastructure for next-generation Vera Rubin GPUs expected in Q4 2026. Vera Rubin infrastructure will be incompatible with facilities designed for current-generation hardware, creating a supply-demand imbalance where next-gen data centers command significantly greater economics. While competitors retrofit for 190 kilowatt-per-rack GB300s, Bitfarms is building for 370 kilowatt-per-rack VR200 systems, requiring different cooling and electrical distribution including potential 800-volt DC systems. The company is targeting 99% of its 2026-2027 development portfolio for Vera Rubin, positioning it to capture peak demand when others face obsolescence.

The Washington site conversion exemplifies this approach. The 18-megawatt Moses Lake facility, located in the largest West Coast data center cluster with sub-$0.03/kWh renewable power and a 10-year waitlist for new capacity, is being transformed into GPU-as-a-service infrastructure targeting PuE of 1.2-1.3. A fully funded $128 million binding agreement for critical IT infrastructure and building materials is already in place, targeting completion in December 2026. Gagnon states this single site “could be worth significantly more than the entire Bitcoin mining business that the company has been operating for multiple years” under a cloud monetization model. This implies that Bitfarms’ smallest site could generate more net operating income than its historical mining operations, demonstrating the transformative economics of the pivot.

Panther Creek serves as the flagship campus with 350 megawatts secured (50 MW by year-end 2026, 300 MW by 2027) and potential expansion beyond 500 MW. The recent decision to modify development for Vera Rubin GPUs marginally delays Phase 1 energization from December 2026 to first-half 2027, but management believes this will enable “significantly greater economics.” The partnership with T5, a top-tier data center developer, validates the development potential to investors and prospective customers. The $300 million Macquarie facility, converted to project-specific financing with an additional $50 million drawn in October 2025, accelerates development while enhancing financial flexibility by moving debt to the asset level.

Quebec’s 170 megawatts of low-cost hydropower represents a unique strategic opportunity to increase the province’s total data center megawatts by 25% from approximately 700 MW today while fulfilling national objectives around data sovereignty and scaling back crypto mining. The 96-megawatt Sherbrooke site is targeted for Vera Rubin conversion in 2027-2028, with the remaining 74 megawatts earmarked for potential expansion. This provides a pathway to convert legacy Bitcoin assets into higher-value HPC capacity with regulatory support, a conversion that is unprecedented but politically supported at multiple levels.

Financial Performance: Mining as a Utility for Transformation

Bitfarms’ Q3 2025 results from continuing operations provide clear evidence that the strategy is working. Revenue of $69 million represented 156% year-over-year growth, while adjusted EBITDA of $20 million (28% margin) increased from $2 million (8% margin) in Q3 2024 and $9 million (15% margin) in Q2 2025. The all-in cost per Bitcoin mined was $82,400, but after a $13.3 million net gain from derivatives, the effective cost fell to $55,200—demonstrating how Bitcoin 2.1 enhances cash generation.AnnualQuarterlyRevenue (USD)Net Income (USD)

Gross mining profit of $21 million at a 35% margin provides the $8 million monthly free cash flow that management explicitly states will fund HPC/AI development projects.AnnualQuarterlyOperating Cash Flow (USD)Free Cash Flow (USD)

The segment performance tells a crucial story. Bitcoin mining is explicitly managed as a “low-risk cash flow foundation with minimal CapEx needs,” not a growth engine. The company completed all Bitcoin mining growth plans in Q2 2025 and consistently states “no plans for large miner purchases in 2025 or 2026.” This focuses capital allocation on higher-return HPC infrastructure where Bitfarms can capture 12% annual lease rate growth versus 3% historical data center rates. The mining segment’s purpose is to service G&A and debt for Panther Creek while funding conversion capex, a disciplined approach that avoids the growth-at-all-costs trap that plagued competitors.

Competitive context reveals Bitfarms’ strategic clarity. Marathon Digital (MARA) operates 60.4 EH/s versus Bitfarms’ 12.3 EH/s, generating $252 million in Q3 revenue but with higher energy costs and no clear HPC conversion pathway. CleanSpark (CLSK) runs 46.6 EH/s with $198.6 million revenue, emphasizing rapid ASIC deployment rather than infrastructure pivot. Riot Platforms (RIOT) operates 33.2 EH/s from Texas, where 1.4-1.5 PuE and grid volatility create structural cost disadvantages. Core Scientific (CORZ), the only peer with a meaningful AI pivot, generated $15 million in AI revenue (+45% YoY) but remains burdened by mining declines and a $146.7 million net loss. Bitfarms trades at 2x adjusted EBITDA versus 3-5x for these peers, reflecting market failure to price the HPC optionality.

The balance sheet transformation underpins the entire thesis. The upsized $588 million convertible note offering in Q3 2025, structured with cash-settled capped calls to offset dilution up to $11.88 per share, demonstrates sophisticated capital markets execution. Combined with over $1 billion in liquidity ($820 million cash and Bitcoin plus $200 million available from Macquarie), Bitfarms possesses what Gagnon calls “the strongest balance sheet and most available capital in the company’s history.” This eliminates the dilution risk that plagues capital-intensive pivots, allowing management to fund multi-year development from a position of strength.AnnualQuarterly

Outlook and Execution Risk: The 2027 Inflection

Management’s guidance reveals a methodical, milestone-driven approach to the HPC transition. Panther Creek Phase 1 energization is marginally delayed to first-half 2027 to accommodate Vera Rubin specifications, while the Washington site targets December 2026 completion. The Sharon site’s full 110-megawatt substation is expected online by year-end 2026, with revenue beginning in first-half 2027. These timelines align with NVIDIA’s Q4 2026 Vera Rubin shipment schedule, positioning Bitfarms to capture first-mover economics before competitors can react. The company’s exahash is expected to “stay relatively consistent in Q4” for continuing operations, then decline gradually as sites convert—Washington potentially impacting 1 exahash by mid-2026, followed by other facilities. This orderly transformation ensures mining cash flow continues funding development until HPC revenue materializes.

The 2026 mining economics correction that Gagnon anticipates—driven by network hashrate growth and a Bitcoin price correction from late-2025 all-time highs—actually supports the thesis. It creates a natural exit ramp from mining just as HPC revenues begin, avoiding a painful cash flow cliff. The company’s guidance that “direct mining margins should range between 50% and 75%” if Bitcoin stays above $100,000 provides a clear marker: mining remains profitable enough to fund the transition but not so attractive that it deters conversion.

Critical execution factors center on construction management and regulatory approval. Gagnon acknowledges that “potential bottlenecks in construction are a little hard to forecast,” but mitigates risk through partnerships with owner’s reps, general contractors, and internal project managers tracking critical paths. The Vera Rubin infrastructure challenge—where “even NVIDIA hasn’t completed their validated reference designs”—requires building for technology that doesn’t yet fully exist. This is mitigated by spreading facilities across multiple years and “building to the technology that’s coming, not to the technology that already exists.” The Quebec conversion’s regulatory pathway, while “unprecedented,” has “broad political support” and “initial indications of support at various levels,” suggesting manageable political risk.

Risks and Asymmetries: What Can Break the Thesis

Three material risks threaten the investment case. First, the capital intensity of HPC/AI—$30-40 million per megawatt versus $1 million for Bitcoin mining in 2024—creates execution risk. The $400 million envisioned for full Panther Creek buildout through 2026, while funded by the $1 billion+ war chest, represents a massive bet on a business model where Bitfarms has limited operating history. If construction costs exceed estimates or lease-up is slower than projected, returns could compress significantly.

Second, technology obsolescence risk is acute. The rapid evolution from 150kW/rack GB200s to 190kW GB300s to 370kW+ Vera Rubin systems means infrastructure built today could be obsolete by completion. Bitfarms mitigates this by targeting Vera Rubin for 99% of 2026-2027 development, but if NVIDIA delays shipments or alternative architectures emerge, the company could be left with expensive, empty data centers while competitors adapt faster.

Third, the mining-to-HPC conversion in Quebec requires regulatory approval for “converting our crypto mining megawatts to traditional data center megawatts,” a process with “no clearly defined pathway.” While politically supported, delays could push conversion beyond 2027-2028, leaving Bitfarms overexposed to the anticipated 2026 mining correction and missing the peak Vera Rubin demand window.

The asymmetry lies in lease rate dynamics and asset scarcity. If Bitfarms executes on timeline, it enters a market where rates have grown from $120/kW-month to $150+ in months, with hyperscalers willing to sign multi-year agreements at premium prices to secure capacity. The Washington site alone could exceed the historical value of the entire mining business under a GPU-as-a-service model, suggesting potential for meaningful re-rating. Conversely, if execution falters, the company retains a profitable mining operation generating $8 million monthly free cash flow and $820 million in liquid assets, providing substantial downside protection versus peers with higher operational leverage.

Valuation Context: Priced for Mining, Positioned for AI

Trading at $3.10 per share, Bitfarms carries a $1.85 billion market capitalization and $1.84 billion enterprise value. The TTM financial ratios reveal a company in transition: -46.38% profit margin, -28.77% operating margin, and -480.42 million in free cash flow reflect one-time transformation costs, Argentina impairments, and heavy HPC development capex. These backward-looking metrics are less relevant than the Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin of 28% and the forward-looking asset base.

On a revenue multiple basis, Bitfarms trades at 6.86x TTM sales versus Marathon at 4.57x, Riot at 8.73x, CleanSpark at 5.69x, and Core Scientific at 15.01x. The premium to pure-play miners reflects the HPC optionality, while the discount to Core Scientific reflects CORZ’s earlier AI revenue recognition. More meaningful is the enterprise value per strategic megawatt: at 461 MW energized today growing to 1.4 GW by 2028, Bitfarms trades at approximately $4,000 per kilowatt of future capacity, significantly below the $30,000-40,000 per kilowatt replacement cost for HPC infrastructure.

The balance sheet strength—3.20 current ratio, 0.12 debt-to-equity, $820 million cash and Bitcoin—provides a valuation floor that pure-mining peers lack.AnnualQuarterly

Marathon’s 0.70 debt-to-equity and Riot’s 0.25 leverage expose them to margin compression in a mining downturn, while Bitfarms can fund its pivot from internal resources. The forward P/E of 155.00 reflects expectations of profitability recovery as HPC revenues replace mining cash flows, but this metric is less relevant than the path to contracted, multi-year lease revenue that commands 20-30x EBITDA multiples for data center REITs.

Conclusion: The Infrastructure Premium Is Earned, Not Given

Bitfarms has executed a strategic pivot that redefines its earnings power from commodity Bitcoin mining to scarce AI infrastructure. The simultaneous acquisition of Stronghold’s generation assets and divestiture of non-strategic Latin American mining created a U.S.-centric power portfolio where every megawatt can be monetized at 3-4x mining economics through HPC colocation. The $8 million monthly mining cash flow and $1 billion+ liquidity provide a self-funding mechanism that eliminates dilution risk while management builds toward 2027 Vera Rubin capacity.

The investment thesis succeeds or fails on execution against construction milestones and lease-up velocity. If Panther Creek energizes in first-half 2027 and secures $150+/kW-month leases for Vera Rubin infrastructure, the company will have transformed 350 MW into annual revenue potential exceeding $600 million—nearly matching its entire current market capitalization. If construction bottlenecks or regulatory delays push timelines beyond the 2026 mining correction, the company still retains a profitable mining business and ample liquidity to navigate the transition.

The market’s 2x adjusted EBITDA multiple reflects a failure to price the HPC optionality embedded in 1.4 gigawatts of strategically located power. Competitors trade at higher multiples but lack Bitfarms’ portfolio quality and conversion pathway. The critical variables to monitor are construction progress at Panther Creek, regulatory approvals in Quebec, and lease rate negotiations for Vera Rubin capacity. If management delivers on these fronts, the valuation gap between Bitcoin miner and AI infrastructure owner will close, creating substantial upside for investors who recognize that power, not hashrate, is the true scarce resource in the AI era.

Bitfarms Unlocks AI Growth with Massive Washington Data Center Overhaul

January 29, 2026 – by Victoria Lambe

Bitfarms Ltd. is currently executing a strategic shift to diversify its digital infrastructure portfolio and capture rising AI demand. The company intends to transform its former Bitcoin mining facility in Moses Lake into a dedicated high-performance computing center. This transition reflects a broader trend of crypto-miners repurposing power assets for more stable technological applications.

Repurposing Energy

In view of the global surge in artificial intelligence, Bitfarms is leveraging its existing power assets for specialized workloads. The Moses Lake facility previously served as a hub for energy-intensive cryptocurrency mining operations. Because of this pivot, the company can now allocate its 12-megawatt capacity to modern AI server hosting. This transformation allows the firm to maximize the utility of its established electrical infrastructure. The Columbia Basin region provides a reliable and cost-effective energy supply for these intensive tasks. Investors should view this as a move to optimize underutilized assets for the highest-value use case.

Stable Revenue

In addition to utilizing power, this shift addresses the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin mining rewards are subject to frequent price swings and network difficulty adjustments. By comparison, AI data center hosting offers the potential for long-term contractual stability and predictable cash flow. Enterprise clients typically seek multi-year agreements to secure computing power and climate-controlled space. This transition provides Bitfarms with a more defensive business model for its shareholders. Stable revenue streams are generally highly valued by institutional investors during periods of broader market uncertainty.

Strategic Efficiency

With respect to capital allocation, retrofitting existing structures is a highly efficient and cost-effective growth strategy. Building new data centers from the ground up often involves years of permitting and heavy construction. Bitfarms can bypass many of these delays by using its current physical footprint in Washington state. The facility already has the necessary zoning and high-voltage power connections in place. This allows for a significantly faster time to market for their computing services. Efficient deployment of capital remains a core component of the current Bitfarms investment thesis.

Regional Moat

The Pacific Northwest is a premier destination for data centers due to its abundant hydroelectric power. On account of the intensive cooling requirements for AI servers, low energy costs are a critical competitive advantage. Bitfarms can offer competitive pricing to enterprise clients while maintaining healthy operating margins. This renewable energy source also helps the company meet increasing corporate sustainability standards. The presence of high-speed fiber networks in the region further enhances the technical attractiveness of the site. For this reason, Moses Lake serves as an ideal location for this infrastructure expansion.

Investment Summary

The Moses Lake project highlights the company’s ability to adapt to shifting technological trends through the following strategic advantages:

  • The company is converting 12 megawatts of existing mining power into high-margin AI and high-performance computing services.
  • This pivot offers increased revenue stability through long-term enterprise contracts compared to the volatile crypto mining sector.
  • Retrofitting the Moses Lake site provides a faster and more cost-effective path to market than traditional new construction projects.
  • The project leverages the regional advantage of low-cost, renewable hydroelectric power to maintain a durable pricing edge for clients.

Strategic Maturation

Ultimately, the transition of the Moses Lake facility represents a fundamental shift in the corporate identity of Bitfarms. By moving beyond the singular focus of cryptocurrency mining, the company is effectively de-risking its long-term financial profile. This evolution reflects a sophisticated understanding of the current global demand for high-performance computing and artificial intelligence. As a consequence, Bitfarms is better positioned to survive the cyclical downturns inherent in the digital asset market.

Success at this site could serve as a blueprint for the company’s global expansion into the high-margin data center industry. While technical execution remains a key factor, the strategic alignment with broader technology trends is a positive indicator for forward-looking investors.

20 Comments on “Bitfarms”

  1. KavaStocks

    I’ve been asked about this by several folks. I see the opportunity here. 2.1 GW portfolio across North America. T5 partnership bringing hyperscaler-grade expertise to Panther Creek. Washington conversion already funded and underway. Management isn’t hedging or experimenting with AI as a side bet. They’re going all in, winding down mining entirely by 2027. That kind of commitment signals conviction at the executive level, and the power assets they’re sitting on are exactly what hyperscalers are desperate for.

    What I need to see before initiating a position is a hyperscaler contract. That’s it. One signed lease with a creditworthy counterparty that converts those megawatts into contracted revenue. APLD has CoreWeave and a second investment-grade hyperscaler. CIFR has AWS and Google-backed Fluidstack. WULF has Fluidstack with Google holding equity. GLXY has CoreWeave. IREN has Microsoft. The names in my portfolio share one thing: billions in contracted revenue with counterparties that won’t default. The thesis isn’t about having power. It’s about power that’s already been monetized.

    I’m not bearish on BITF. Not even close. I’m neutral because the confirmation hasn’t arrived yet. But I think it will. The assets are real. The strategy is sound. The market for what they’re building has never been hungrier. I’m the type of long that buys on validation rather than anticipation, so I wait for the catalyst.

    Here’s the thing though. Institutions operate the same way. They can’t deploy capital against speculation. They need contracts, counterparties, revenue visibility. When that hyperscaler announcement drops, it won’t just be retail rotating in. It’ll be institutional capital that was sitting on the sidelines for the same reason I am. That’s what creates the surge. Everyone waiting for the same confirmation, getting it simultaneously.

    I’m rooting for everyone holding. I genuinely hope to join you soon. The opportunity looks right. I just need to see it convert.
    Jan 09, 2026 6:41 PM

    —————————–

    Catalyst

    Hyperscaler contract announcement at Panther Creek or Moses Lake.

    ***Sites
    Panther Creek in eastern Pennsylvania is the flagship: 350 MW of secured power with $100 million already drawn from the $300 million Macquarie project financing facility. Groundbreaking occurred Q4 2025, with Phase 1 (50 MW) targeted for energization by end of 2026 and full 300 MW by end of 2027.

    T5 Data Centers, which counts all seven major U.S. hyperscalers as customers, is the strategic construction partner. Management notes proximity to Amazon and CoreWeave sites in what they describe as an emerging AI infrastructure hub.

    Moses Lake, Washington adds 18 MW in a region with a ten-year waitlist for power. This is the first site being evaluated for colocation or GPU-as-a-Service.

    Sharon, Pennsylvania contributes another 110 MW under an energy services agreement. Quebec rounds out the portfolio with 170 MW of hydropower across multiple sites, all within 90 minutes of Montreal and confirmed convertible to HPC.

    ***Financing
    The balance sheet is built for the pivot. Recent $590 million convertible financing raised total liquidity to approximately $750 million unencumbered, plus the $200 million remaining on the Macquarie facility.

    Bitcoin operations generate roughly $8 million per month, funding operating costs while the HPC buildout proceeds. The company is transitioning to U.S. GAAP and has established a New York City office as part of a broader U.S. redomiciliation expected in 2026.

    ***Bear Case
    Bitfarms has sold its Latin American operations and is winding down Bitcoin mining over two years. That is conviction, but it is also a one-way door. If the HPC pivot fails to attract hyperscalers, they hold power assets with no revenue stream. Execution extends into late 2027. Management has been clear about “significant interest from prospective clients” but no contracts have been signed.

    Reply

  2. Stocktwits019475

    Real investors saw the news yesterday and what really moved the stock.

    1. They paid down the Macquarie debt in one lump sum. Why is this significant? 1- It was a high rate, future financing will be significantly cheaper. 2- It highly suggests they have future financing lined up. Either a new contract or new big name investor.

    2. Announced $700M in net liquidity- plenty of cash to sustain multiple projects. This means no dilution fears.

    3. Redomicile to the US- will then be listed on the Nasdaq. Expected 4/1/26. Official pivot to AI infrastructure sheds the Bitcoin ties. AI hyperscalers literally can’t get enough power until >2030. 3 Major AI data centers under construction with hyperscaler contract expected EOY.

    4. Confluence of events- the downtrend was tied to bitcoin price, and the overall market sell off last week. Market hit a new record high + BTC had a record reversal. Along with the PR, this represents a significant shift in the landscape of this stock.
    Bullish

    Feb 07, 2026 2:09 PM

    Reply

  3. Goldman: Local Resistance Against Data Centers “Are Not Slowing Development”

    by Tyler Durden
    Saturday, Feb 07, 2026 – 04:20 AM

    Fierce winter weather across the eastern half of the U.S. put the power grid, data centers, and electricity prices back in focus, especially in the Mid-Atlantic, where Washington, D.C., logged its longest freezing streak since 1989.

    Our review of Facebook, X, media coverage, and local officials’ comments suggests that the cold snap across the Mid-Atlantic has put data centers and power bills in the spotlight, especially given that PJM Interconnection is already operating in a very tight grid environment.

    Even as residents in Mid-Atlantic states increasingly push back against data centers while watching their monthly power bills soar, local officials, some of whom are partly responsible for tightening grid spare capacity with backfiring “green” policies, are scrambling as public anger grows.

    However, Goldman analysts led by Hongcen Wei have some disappointing news for residents in the Mid-Atlantic, and frankly elsewhere, who are trying to slow data center development: “U.S. Local Regulatory Pushbacks Against Data Centers Are Not Slowing Development.”

    Reply

  4. Dre4

    Follow
    $BITF March 26th we announce a partnership and 10 dollars here we come, lets gooooooo
    Mar 17, 2026 5:51 AM

    Reply

  5. Sebation Thomas
    @SupremeFireCPG
    In the relentless race to power the AI revolution, owning $BITF aka $KEEL positions you at the vanguard of a seismic shift—repurposing Bitcoin mining grit into hyperscale data centers with unmatched PJM Interconnection leverage, where peers like $MARA and $RIOT are stuck in ERCOT’s volatility trap. Recent moves, from the Keel Infrastructure rebrand and U.S. redomiciliation to bolstering the team with U.S. power pros, unlock East Coast low-latency dominance for AI workloads, drawing Microsoft $MSFT lurking in the wings with a potential multi-gigawatt contract that could catapult $BITF into the exaflop era, turning yesterday’s crypto volatility into tomorrow’s stable, moonshot returns—think $TSLA Tesla’s pivot to autonomy, but for the neural net backbone of civilization. $ORCL wants PJM Interconnected Pennsylvania as well…
    3:39 PM · Mar 16, 2026

    In the high-stakes game of powering the next AI wave, $BITF holds a structural edge peers like MARA and RIOT simply can’t match right now: deep, exclusive access to the PJM Interconnection—the largest, most reliable, and lowest-latency grid serving the entire Eastern seaboard. While Texas-based miners fight ERCOT’s wild price swings, transmission bottlenecks, and hurricane risk, Bitfarms sits squarely in PJM’s stable, deregulated market with abundant hydro, fiber-dense corridors, and direct proximity to the biggest AI demand centers (NYC, Philly, DC, Boston). That geographic and grid advantage translates to lower latency for inference workloads, easier permitting for hyperscale builds, and stronger positioning for the kind of multi-gigawatt, long-term contracts that hyperscalers like Microsoft crave—turning $BITF from a former miner into the East Coast’s stealth AI infrastructure play while the competition scrambles to retrofit in a more hostile grid environment. $KEEL 😉

    **PJM Interconnection advantages over ERCOT for AI/HPC data centers offers
    Lower latency & proximity to demand**: PJM serves the dense East Coast population centers (NYC, DC, Philly, Boston), enabling sub-10ms latency for real-time AI inference/training vs. ERCOT’s Texas isolation (higher latency to major East Coast users).
    -**Greater grid reliability & uptime**: PJM delivers 99.99%+ reliability with a mature, multi-state transmission network and diverse energy mix (rising renewables + baseload), while ERCOT faces more frequent extreme weather events, price spikes, and occasional rolling blackout risks.
    – **Deregulated market with merchant flexibility**: PJM allows energy arbitrage, demand response, and ancillary services participation, plus recent FERC/PJM rules (2026) fast-tracking co-located large loads and behind-the-meter generation—smoothing integration for hyperscalers compared to ERCOT’s faster but more volatile single-state market.
    – **Strategic East Coast positioning**: $BITF’s PA sites (Panther Creek/Scrubgrass) tap PJM’s fiber-rich corridors and proximity to hyperscaler hubs, avoiding ERCOT’s transmission bottlenecks and hurricane exposure that complicate MARA/RIOT’s Texas-heavy footprints.

    While ERCOT offers cheaper renewables and quicker interconnections in some cases, PJM’s combination of reliability, low-latency access to premium AI markets, and evolving large-load rules gives $BITF aka $KEEL a clearer edge for stable, high-value hyperscaler contracts.

    **$BITF’s PJM grid advantages compared to rivals $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF, $CLSK, $HUT, $APLD) — concise overview (mid-2026):**

    – **Low-latency East Coast access** — PJM covers dense population/AI demand hubs (NYC, DC, Philly, Boston) for sub-10ms inference/training vs. most rivals’ ERCOT/Texas isolation (higher latency to East Coast users) or scattered footprints (HUT Canada/Texas, $APLD / $WULF mixed).
    – **Superior reliability & uptime** — PJM’s multi-state, diverse mix (rising renewables + baseload) delivers 99.99%+ uptime; ERCOT-heavy peers (IREN, CIFR, CLSK dominant in Texas) face weather volatility, price spikes, curtailment risks, and occasional blackouts.
    – **Merchant market flexibility** — PJM enables energy arbitrage, demand response, ancillary services, and fast-track co-location rules (2026 FERC/PJM updates) for behind-the-meter/large-load integration; ERCOT is quicker for some interconnections but more volatile/single-state.
    – **Strategic positioning for hyperscalers** — BITF’s PA sites (Panther Creek/Scrubgrass) tap fiber-rich corridors near East Coast hyperscaler activity (e.g., Amazon, CoreWeave proximity) while avoiding ERCOT transmission bottlenecks/hurricane exposure that challenge Texas-focused rivals $IREN, $CIFR, $CLSK).
    – **Long-term stability edge** — PJM’s evolving large-load reforms (e.g., conditional interconnection, flexible data center blueprints) favor reliable East Coast builds; rivals in ERCOT benefit from cheap renewables/fast queues but face higher grid strain from ~200GW interconnect queue and demand shocks.

    **Bottom line**: $BITF ‘s PJM footprint provides clearer geographic/reliability advantages for latency-sensitive AI contracts (e.g., potential $MSFT /Azure) and stable hyperscaler appeal, while most rivals remain ERCOT-dominant with faster but riskier execution in a more constrained/volatile market. $ORCL circles…

    $META will be contracting with $BITF aka $KEEL for Lo-latency Co-located PJM Interconnection.

    Reply

  6. Mediocre Man
    @AMediocrit49469

    As per Gemini, the Nesquehoning Borough Council is scheduled to meet on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, this meeting is expected to be a pivotal session for the Panther Creek development.

    On the Agenda:

    1. Finalizing Ordinance 2026-01 – Data Center Zoning Ordinance.

    Reply

  7. NexGenStag

    Key Financial Results (FY2025)

    Revenue:
    $78 million, up 87% year‑over‑year

    Gross Mining Margin:
    45%, down from 51% in FY2024

    Liquidity
    Strong liquidity including:
    Growing Bitcoin treasury
    ~$85 million in cash
    Debt financing secured with Macquarie

    Capex:
    Minimal 2025 capex remaining, meaning more free cash flow going forward.

    🏗️ Strategic & Operational Highlights
    1. Massive AI/HPC Expansion
    Bitfarms is aggressively pivoting into AI compute infrastructure:

    Partnered with T5 Data Centers to accelerate HPC/AI development.

    Building a 1+ GW North American energy portfolio across Pennsylvania, Washington, and Quebec.

    Positioning itself near Amazon and CoreWeave sites — signalling hyperscale customer targeting.

    2. U.S. Strategic Pivot
    Establishing a second principal executive office in New York City.

    3. Share Buyback Program
    Already repurchased 10% of all shares available under the buyback program.

    CFO explicitly stated the company believes the stock is significantly undervalued.
    Bullish
    Mar 31, 2026 2:29 PM

    Reply

  8. Matthew_Murphy

    From the Jefferies + earnings calls combined:

    They confirmed:

    • customers engaged across all three AI sites
    • leases follow NTP clearance
    • Moses Lake earliest deployment site
    • Sharon + Panther Creek second wave
    • Scrubgrass load study active (750MW)
    • conversion non-firm → firm service possible this year
    • utility asking how much more power BITF wants
    • pipeline adjacency enabling 500–550MW generation optionality

    That combination is rare pre-lease.

    Most developers have only one of those signals.

    BITF has several.
    Bullish
    Mar 31, 2026 6:17 PM

    Reply

  9. Matthew_Murphy

    BITF avoided Texas historically due to power volatility + limited non-BTC use cases
    • Strategy focuses on markets with stable grid power + multi-use energy demand (PA, WA, Quebec)
    • Pennsylvania remains a core strategic region going forward
    • Company targeting locations with excess transmission capacity vs demand
    • Quebec sites benefit from data-sovereignty laws forcing local storage of enterprise + government data
    • Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google) recently denied new Quebec power applications → raises value of existing secured power
    • Quebec capacity expected to command higher lease rates vs U.S. markets due to scarcity
    • Sites selected intentionally for natural hedges against energy price volatility
    • Expansion strategy = prioritize powered land with multiple long-term applications, not BTC-only economics
    • Management confirmed continued focus on North American HPC/AI infrastructure positioning
    Bullish
    Mar 31, 2026 6:06 PM

    Reply

  10. TradeIntelligence_

    Follow
    $BITF $KEEL earnings takeaway: the market is missing the setup, not the story.

    They’re not rushing deals—and that’s intentional. Management is waiting for NTP (Notice to Proceed) + full permits before locking in long-term leases. Translation: only premium, investment-grade counterparties, not weak ones.

    The real catalyst? Lease execution in 2026. Once those 10–15 year contracts are signed, everything changes—this is the unlock the market is waiting for.

    Meanwhile:
    • Permits expected mid–late summer (major milestone)
    • 2027 revenue ramps as projects go live
    • $520M cash runway = no near-term dilution risk
    • ~2/3 of 2.2GW is expansion capacity the market isn’t pricing

    And here’s the disconnect:

    Companies with signed leases trade at $4M–$6M per MW for 2027 capacity. BITF is still trading like it doesn’t have those contracts yet.

    Plus:
    • Power demand is REAL (utilities calling THEM)
    • Scarce, hard-to-permit regions (PA, WA, QC) = moat
    • Moving to colocation = lower CapEx, higher efficiency

    Mar 31, 2026 5:28 PM

    Reply

  11. Matthew_Murphy

    First AI lease timing mainly depends on clearing NP (Notice to Proceed) — last step before signing
    • All three AI sites (Moses Lake, Sharon, Panther Creek) already have customers engaged under NDA
    • Panther Creek capacity expected to increase from 350MW → ~400MW with regulatory approval (no major CapEx required)
    • Utility proactively asked BITF how much additional power they want — rare and very bullish signal
    • Scrubgrass expansion exists but is longer-term (2028–2029), not part of near-term lease story
    • Management confirmed power—not GPUs—is the real bottleneck for hyperscaler growth
    • Bitcoin mining exposure will continue declining through 2026 as company pivots to HPC/AI
    • Company expects to stay well-capitalized through lease execution without raising equity
    • Washington site pivot away from GPU rental reduces CapEx and improves infrastructure model economics
    • Scrubgrass + Panther Creek already generate PJM capacity auction revenue before AI leases start
    • U.S. redomicile enables eligibility for Russell 1000 / 2000 / 3000 inclusion, opening door to passive fund inflows

    Mar 31, 2026 4:11 PM

    Reply

  14. https://northwiseproject.com/keel-scrubgrass-site-analysis/

    The Scrubgrass facility in Venango County, Pennsylvania is being repositioned as a potential AI and high-performance computing campus. The site sits on roughly 750 owned acres with options on an additional 1,100, and its current owner, Keel Infrastructure (formerly Bitfarms), has staked much of its U.S. development strategy on converting this legacy industrial and bitcoin mining asset into something far more valuable.

    The conversion is plausible in outline. Scrubgrass already has grid interconnection, an active load study for significant expansion, a natural gas pipeline running nearby, and a land footprint large enough to support campus-scale development. Those ingredients are rare in the PJM territory, where available power is increasingly difficult to secure and interconnection timelines routinely stretch beyond 5 years.

    Whether the site can actually make the transition depends on a series of specific, measurable steps. Secured capacity needs to grow. Cleanup obligations need to close out on schedule. The gas generation option needs to move from evaluation to engineering. And a tenant of sufficient credit quality needs to show up with a lease structure that unlocks project-level financing.

    Reply

  15. Last week, CEO Benjamin Gagnon said in a post on X that the company had engaged in conversation with 129 investors since its earnings call on May 11.

    Reply

  16. KavaStocks

    $KEEL Oh look, another offering, another misunderstanding. They are raising $350 million of convertible senior notes due 2032, plus a $58 million option. Senior means it ranks ahead of the equity if things go wrong, unsecured means nothing is pledged against it, convertible means it can turn into stock later.

    Keel’s deal includes capped calls that limit dilution up to a 100% premium, and it can settle conversions in cash, stock, or a mix at its own election. That’s the shareholder-friendly end of the convert spectrum: the company is paying to keep its own holders from getting diluted when the notes convert. A $3.4 billion company raising into a 52-week high can afford to structure it that way.

    A buildout like this needs capital years before it has customers, and the usual ways to get it are both bad. Straight equity dumps dilution on shareholders now. Secured debt pledges the campuses and the power, the only assets worth anything at this stage. A capped-call convert dodges both. It carries a lower coupon than straight debt because the buyer is paying for the conversion option, the capped calls hedge away most of the dilution that option would create, and the notes are unsecured, so the sites stay free for project financing later. The 2032 maturity matches a build that takes years to fill.

    It’s the cheapest money on the table that neither soaks the shareholders nor ties up the assets, and that is what good financing looks like at this stage.

    Reply

  17. Anthropic’s safety warnings may have just backfired — the government has pulled the plug on its most powerful AI

    Anthropic isn’t hiding its frustration. “We disagree that the finding of a narrow potential jailbreak should be cause for recalling a commercial model deployed to hundreds of millions of people,” the company wrote in a blog post.

    By Connie Loizos 7:26 PM PDT · June 12, 2026

    Anthropic’s sudden move to suspend access to its newest AI models following a U.S. government directive has raised fresh questions across the global technology industry. In India, the decision has reignited a long-running debate over whether one of the world’s largest AI markets can afford to rely on technologies built and controlled elsewhere.

    The announcement came late Friday, when Anthropic said it had received the U.S. government directive requiring it to suspend access to its recently launched Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all foreign nationals, including its own foreign national employees. The move came shortly after the company announced a partnership with Indian IT services giant Tata Consultancy Services to expand enterprise AI adoption in India, underlining how closely the country’s AI ambitions have become tied to technologies developed and governed in the U.S.

    While the broader implications remain unclear, some reports said the initial security concerns were first reported to the government by Amazon CEO Andy Jassy. And The Information said the White House is unlikely to extend similar restrictions to other AI companies and is privately blaming Anthropic’s handling of alleged jailbreak vulnerabilities. Anthropic has disputed the government’s characterization and argued the action should not have been taken.

    Regardless, the development has triggered debate among Indian founders, investors, and policy experts over whether the country should accelerate efforts to build domestic AI capabilities, deepen investment in open-source alternatives, or continue relying on a handful of U.S. frontier model providers. For some, the episode is a wake-up call on technological dependence. For others, it is a reminder that access to increasingly critical AI systems can be shaped by geopolitical decisions beyond India’s control.

    India has become one of the most important markets for frontier AI companies. Anthropic and OpenAI have both described the South Asian nation as their second-largest market after the U.S., reflecting its growing importance in the global AI race. The companies have already set up their offices in India, expanded local hiring, partnerships, and enterprise initiatives in recent months, betting on India’s vast base of developers, startups, and businesses to accelerate adoption of their latest technologies.

    For many in India’s technology sector, Anthropic’s Friday announcement was about more than just one AI company. It reopened questions about the country’s long-term AI strategy and whether India could afford to remain dependent on a small number of foreign frontier AI providers.

    “It completely changes things,” said Aakrit Vaish, founder of Indian AI venture platform Activate, referring to Anthropic’s decision. “I think this materially changes the way all of us should be thinking about sovereign AI in India.”

    Vaish told TechCrunch that he woke up on Saturday morning “shocked and confused” by the announcement and said it strengthened the case for developing domestic AI capabilities. He expects startups to increasingly turn to open-source models and plans to encourage companies in his portfolio to reduce their dependence on a small number of frontier AI providers.

    For some founders, the bigger concern was what restrictions on frontier AI access could mean for competitiveness. Vijay Rayapati, co-founder and CEO of Atomicwork, told TechCrunch that the episode highlighted the risks facing startups whose teams span multiple countries if access to advanced AI systems increasingly becomes subject to geopolitical restrictions.

    Atomicwork has around 25 employees in the U.S., though much of its product engineering team is based in Bengaluru, India.

    “If your AI team is not made up entirely of U.S. citizens, you are at a competitive disadvantage,” Rayapati said, arguing that unequal access to frontier AI models could give some companies a significant edge over rivals.

    The concern comes as parts of India’s tech sector are already grappling with questions about how AI could reshape the economics of global talent. This week, U.S. real estate technology company Opendoor shut its India office less than two years after expanding in the country, with CEO Kaz Nejatian citing a push to bring operational work closer to customers in the U.S. and a shift toward smaller AI-native teams.

    While Opendoor did not specify how much of the decision was driven by AI-related efficiencies, the move added to a broader debate about how advances in AI could affect the future of global technology work and what that might mean for India’s position as an engineering talent hub.

    Beyond Anthropic
    In addition to startups and AI builders, the Anthropic episode also prompted a broader debate among India’s technology leaders about dependence on foreign AI infrastructure.

    Sridhar Vembu, founder of Indian SaaS company Zoho, said the move showed that “technology is the ultimate weapon” and urged Indian organizations to increasingly embrace smaller and open-source models.

    “What can our government do right now? Ensure that orgs in India embrace smaller models, both Indian and Chinese open source ones,” Vembu wrote on X.

    Investor and former Infosys executive Mohandas Pai responded to Vembu on X, arguing that the development highlighted the need for a far more ambitious national AI strategy and calling on the government to substantially increase investments in AI, computing infrastructure, and deep technology.

    “We are way behind and need a national mission to get going quickly,” Pai wrote, urging the government to create an annual ₹500 billion (about $5 billion) fund for AI and deep tech, alongside a ₹2 trillion (around $21 billion) credit guarantee program to support cloud infrastructure, hardware, and semiconductor development.

    Pai’s proposal would dwarf India’s existing AI efforts. In 2024, New Delhi approved the IndiaAI Mission with an outlay of ₹103.72 billion (about $1.2 billion) over five years, aimed at expanding compute infrastructure, supporting startups, and developing indigenous AI capabilities.

    Despite growing interest in AI and New Delhi’s push to develop domestic capabilities, India remains a relatively small player in frontier model development. Only a handful of startups are pursuing foundational AI models, including Sarvam, which released open-source models earlier this year. However, another high-profile AI startup, Krutrim, pivoted toward cloud and AI infrastructure services after initially positioning itself around foundational model development.

    Much of India’s AI ecosystem has instead concentrated on applications and specialized models built on top of existing foundation models. Recent examples include Avataar AI, which launched a video-generation model earlier this week aimed at providing a lower-cost alternative to offerings from rivals including Google’s Veo, Kling, Luma, and Runway.

    Not everyone agrees that the primary challenge is a lack of capital. Responding to Pai’s comments, Lightspeed partner Hemant Mohapatra argued that the biggest constraints to building globally competitive AI companies are talent, access to computing resources, and execution, rather than simply the size of investment commitments.

    Mohapatra estimated that training a frontier AI model could cost anywhere from hundreds of millions to several billion dollars, depending on the approach, but said successful AI companies have historically scaled their capital requirements over time as adoption grew.

    Yet for some policy observers, the implications extend well beyond AI startups or model providers.

    Prasanto Roy, a New Delhi-based technology policy expert who advises multinational companies, said the episode would likely reinforce concerns within the Indian government about strategic autonomy, comparing it to the lesson many countries drew from Russia’s loss of access to SWIFT and other parts of the global financial system following its invasion of Ukraine.

    He told TechCrunch that the move was likely to provoke a significant nationalist backlash in India and described it as a poorly considered decision by Washington, with consequences extending far beyond Anthropic itself.

    “Even if this is corrected or reversed, the Anthropic episode shows there’s no such thing as a geopolitically neutral foreign LLM,” Roy said. “American AI models are bound to American geopolitics.”

    When you purchase through links in our articles, we may earn a small commission. This doesn’t affect our editorial independence.

    Reply

  18. KavaStocks

    Follow
    $KEEL

    I want to add some perspective, because I was around for the version of this that worked.

    My APLD average sits in the six-dollar range. I traded it at lows of three and four, and I am still long. I bring it up for one reason: I sat through this exact stage once already, and I watched what broke it open.

    Strip APLD back to early 2025 and you find a company with land, power, and plans, and no signed customer. The assets were real. The team was real. The timeline was real. What was missing was a creditworthy counterparty willing to put its name on a lease. The day that signature landed, the same buildings and the same team were worth a different number, because the cash flows now had a name attached. Development risk became contracted cash flow in one announcement. The contract was the catalyst.

    KEEL is standing in that pre-signature stage now. Power secured, runway funded into 2028, Panther Creek anchored at 350 megawatts under a PPL agreement, Scrubgrass sitting behind it as a 750-megawatt option. The pivot is underway, and leadership is making the moves you would want to see. What they have not done is close. That is the whole gap, and it is the same gap APLD had to cross.

    The comparison is not apples to apples, and I won’t pretend otherwise. APLD had CoreWeave pulling at it inside an acute shortage. KEEL is still taking its sites to market against a year-end target of three anchor leases. APLD has since proven it can close, repeatedly, across five campuses and three counterparties. KEEL has proven it can secure power and fund itself. Those are different proofs. The contract is unwon, and it can stay that way.

    That is also where the asymmetry lives. You are looking at a single-digit price on a company doing what the core operators were doing twelve to eighteen months before they signed. If the power converts to a lease, the downside compresses. If management hits its target of three deals this year, this stops being a single-digit stock and becomes a different company at a different multiple, and the entry you have today is the one that disappears the moment the signature prints.

    Setups like this are how single-digit entries turn into generational positions, and they do not come around often. They are rare because they require being early to a pivot that has not paid off yet. The risk is real, and execution is everything here. Power looking for a lease is a story until the lease is signed. But of the companies still on the wrong side of that line, I think KEEL is positioned as well as any of them, and I am willing to be early on that read.

    Jun 19, 2026 6:05 PM

    ————–

    DJDannyBoy
    Jun 19, 2026 7:54 PM

    @KavaStocks I want to thank you for all of the research you have done and shared with the community. I have circulated your thesis with many friends and family who then have made purchases they have been quite pleased with making!
    I’d love to get ypur perspective on a “hypothetical” situation as you will not be giving any financial advice, just chatting. If someone had 10k shares of APLD (in the mid teens) and 5k shares of KEEL (in the low 5s), would it be wise in your opinion, knowing the risks associated, to sell 500 shares of APLD at 170% profit to purchase 3,500 – 4k more shares of KEEL? Thanks for taking the time
    ———–

    KavaStocks
    Jun 19, 2026 8:26 PM

    @DJDannyBoy First, thank you, and I’m glad the people around you have done well by it. That makes me want to be more careful here, so I’ll skip the buy/sell verdict on specific share counts. The hypothetical framing doesn’t change that there’s a real person and real money on the other end, and I don’t know your timeline, your risk tolerance, or your tax situation (realizing a 170% gain is its own taxable event worth running the numbers on). What I can give you is the way I’d think about it.

    APLD and KEEL sit at opposite ends of the risk curve. APLD is the proven end: contracted, delivering power, the catalysts already fired. KEEL is the binary end: secured power, funded runway, no signed lease, and it can stay that way for a while. So the trade raises the risk in your book. You’d be moving money from the part that has worked into the part that is still a bet. And 500 of 10k APLD is only 5%, so the APLD side is minor; the real question is how large a binary you want KEEL to be, knowing it could sign this year or go nowhere. I size names like KEEL for the case where I’m wrong, which is why I won’t put “wise” on adding to one. If you have real conviction the signature lands, and you can sit through it not landing, that’s a call only you can make.

    ——————
    DJDannyBoy
    Jun 19, 2026 9:38 PM

    @KavaStocks Extremely well answered as always! A lot of good information to ponder, thank you for your insight, much appreciated!
    ——————-

    yannpeve
    Jun 19, 2026 7:28 PM

    @KavaStocks Thanks for the insight! What do you reckon will happen in Keel’s next step, we can be 99% sure a signature will come soon?

    What type of AI scaler would be interested in keels infrastructure you think? A hyperscaler like aws, meta or google? Or more AI cloudservice like lambda or coreweave?

    Cheers !

    —————

    KavaStocks
    Jun 19, 2026 8:12 PM

    @yannpeve Drop the 99 first: there’s no named counterparty yet, and a year-end guide is a target that often slips. On the type, it matters less than people think, because KEEL leases powered shells and the stock re-rates on the credit behind the lease, whoever the tenant turns out to be. A neocloud probably opens the door first, the way Cipher, TeraWulf and Hut 8 all crossed over (Fluidstack, with Google backstopping). But a direct AWS/Meta/Google deal and a backstopped neocloud do the same job for KEEL: turn secured power into contracted cash flow a lender will underwrite.

    Reply

  19. Shaking off the rust: Pennsylvania’s data center rise
    How the Rust Belt state has become one of latest boom markets in the US

    June 30, 2026 By Dan Swinhoe
    Talen Cumulus Nuclear DC.png

    AWS’ data center next to a nuclear plant in Salem Township. – Talen | Cumulus

    Though some might disagree, Pennsylvania claims to be the birthplace of artificial intelligence. AI research at Carnegie Mellon University dates back to the mid-1960s and what some say was the foundation of the world’s first AI research hub.

    Despite the hotly disputed accolade, however, the Appalachian state has long lagged behind in actually hosting the infrastructure that makes modern AI possible, with a relatively small data center market compared to its neighbors.

    PA also declares itself to be the birthplace of the US oil industry. And with ample power driven largely from natural gas, a large portfolio of brownfield industrial sites in need of repurposing, and a business-friendly government, Pennsylvania is quickly luring a wave of new data center development.

    Rust Belt no more
    Pennsylvania has often been spurned by data center developers in favor of its mid-Atlantic neighbors. On one side, it has the New York/New Jersey and Northern Virginia hubs, the historical hearts of the industry in the US and globally. On the other side, Ohio has grown to become a major market of its own, with developments centered around Columbus and now spreading further afield.

    Though it has traditionally fared better than neighboring Maryland and West Virginia, data center projects within Pennsylvania have been few and far between. Most developments were concentrated around its largest cities, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, with the majority of these being smaller interconnection and/or retail colocation-focused facilities. PA is home to some notable national players, including H5, Iron Mountain, DataBank, Flexential, Netrality, and Expedient, but hasn’t boasted the same kind of hyperscale market that Ohio or Virginia has secured.

    “There have been some connectivity-based assets in your major metros like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia,” says Montana Myer, senior analyst at DatacenterHawk. “But there haven’t been any of these 100MW, gigawatt-scale campuses until the last two years.”

    Change, however, is afoot. A report published by analyst firm DC Byte in September 2025 suggested Pennsylvania’s data center market is growing exponentially, jumping from 231MW of total IT load in 2021 to a hefty 7.8GW of planned load in 2025.

    Hyperscalers have previously shunned Pennsylvania because “policy and planning efforts prioritized enterprise and retail colocation,” argues Surafel Tadesse, research analyst at DC Byte. “Local zoning, utility planning, and incentive structures were not optimized for hyperscalers.”

    But market conditions in the state “have shifted materially, driven by increased investment in energy infrastructure that is expanding available power capacity,” he continues. “Recent legislation has accelerated data center development timelines, while new tax incentives have reduced overall development costs.”

    At the same time, AI-driven capacity constraints in primary markets such as Northern Virginia have pushed developers to seek new locations, with “Pennsylvania positioned to capture this spillover demand,” Tadesse adds.

    Pennsylvania’s rise has been fueled by new projects from both established names and new players. PowerHouse is planning a 1.35GW site in Carlisle. AI cloud firm CoreWeave is planning a 300MW development in Lancaster. Aligned is targeting a campus at a former coal plant in Shippingport. TierPoint, long present in the state, is expanding its Pennsylvania campus to 100MW. QTS is targeting a 1,700-acre campus in Salem Township. TecFusions is developing a multi-gigawatt natural-gas powered campus outside Pittsburgh, with AI cloud firm Tensorwave as a major tenant. Cryptominer-turned HPC data center firm Bitfarms (rebranding to Keel) is targeting multiple sites that could reach hundreds of megawatts.

    “We’ve operated in the state for a number of years, and I’ve always been a little surprised it hasn’t been more of a data center hub up until recently, just with proximity to New York,” says Don Schuett, SVP business development at TierPoint. “It’s fairly rural outside of Philadelphia, so there’s open space and abundant power, and a relatively cooperative utility provider. Pennsylvania is not that far away from Northern Virginia, so it’s a pretty logical location for there to be a spillover effect.”

    Of the new entrants to the state, the most notable is probably Amazon, which has pledged to invest some $20 billion in Pennsylvania across multiple campuses.

    The hyperscaler’s announcement brought a lot of attention to the state, says Myer, and its validation of PA as potentially fertile ground seems to have spurred investment from others. He notes that AI cares less about geographical centers than the traditional cloud might, opening up more opportunities for hyperscalers and neoclouds to develop, away from the established hubs.

    “There have been several very large projects, and I think that we’ll continue to see large-scale projects announced,” he says. “When hyperscalers come to a market, the third-party operators who are building sites to serve hyperscalers and enterprise typically follow.”

    For Melissa Farney, TecFusions’ director of marketing, Pennsylvania offers a “unique combination” of factors that make it attractive to developers. She says: “It has the available power, it’s a really strategic geography if you look at the fiber routes, and then there’s a lot of industrial real estate that could be reused. A lot of eyes are on it. Pennsylvania was always at least a secondary market, because it is a major thoroughfare. But the immediate primary ones are completely at capacity.”

    While many of these new proposals are still in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia areas, projects are being planned across the state, with new hub clusters appearing. Archbald, a borough in Lackawanna County in northeast Pennsylvania, has seen five projects proposed that could total around 4.7 million sq ft (439,400 sqm) across 29 buildings at full build-out. More projects have been proposed across the rest of the county.

    “We see the data center boom as Pennsylvania’s golden ticket to lead the country again, economically,” says Jon Anzur, SVP of public affairs at the PA Chamber, a business advocacy association in Pennsylvania that is working with data center companies including Amazon, Google, and Meta. “There is such an opportunity to really drive investment into predominantly rural communities in the state that have been left behind as industries have gone away and jobs have left.”

    Energy the key to the Keystone State
    Pennsylvania’s legacy, both positive and negative, is key to its current rebirth in the age of AI.

    The state was long associated with steel manufacturing, but suffered heavy decline in the 1970s and 1980s. Manufacturing also withered away amid decades of outsourcing to cheaper regions, resulting in the loss of many textile, automotive, and printing jobs.

    Philadelphia was once called the “Workshop of the World,” while Pittsburgh still clings to its “Steel City” heritage via its NFL team, the Steelers. Amid ongoing deindustrialization and stagnation, however, the region went from being known as the Steel Belt or Factory Belt in its heyday to the Rust Belt by the 1980s.

    “Pennsylvania has a rich industrial history,” says the PA Chamber’s Anzur, but he also acknowledges that PA “lies in the heart” of the Rust Belt.

    “We’ve seen the decline in industry, both steel and coal, and with it, manufacturing across the state,” he says. “We’ve really been working to create a new industrial revolution through technology, and a lot of it really relies on our ability to generate energy.”

    But, as a result of that decline, the state has a host of brownfield industrial sites that can be revived for data center use. These often have ready-made transmission infrastructure with available power, alongside water infrastructure for cooling. Multiple projects are looking to redevelop numerous sites around the state, including coal plants, steel mills, manufacturing plants, printing presses, junkyards, golf courses, and even a former psychiatric hospital.

    TierPoint tekpark allentown pennsylvania

    TierPoint is expanding at its existing TekPark campus in Allentown – TierPoint

    “It is really because of our energy that we’ve been able to attract investment, and it’s become a lifeline for communities across the state that have seen decline in population as a result of decline in steel and coal and other industries,” Anzur notes.

    TecFusions’ Farney adds that PA’s brownfield sites are great for companies looking to get capacity online quickly. Her company is redeveloping a former metals manufacturing site outside Pittsburgh, and will be reusing many of the site’s existing buildings.

    “Oftentimes, they have available power already. It’s not being utilized, and they can be converted into an AI-ready data center within just a few months, which is not only good for us, but also for our AI tenants who are trying to deploy the latest GPUs and technology.”

    As well as AI, Pennsylvania has a claim to being the birthplace of commercial oil roduction. Colonel Edwin L. Drake was the first American to successfully drill for oil, sinking the first well specifically intended to produce oil in Titusville in 1859. Around the same time, Pittsburgh became home to the first plant to refine crude oil into kerosene for use in lighting. The state still produces hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil a month and is one of the major producers of natural gas in the US.

    As a result, Pennsylvania’s status as an energy state remains strong. It is one of the largest exporters of electricity in the US. The majority of power in the state– around 59 percent – comes from natural gas, with nuclear making up some 30 percent of the mix. Renewable energy comes in at just four percent, according to the EIA, slightly behind coal.

    “As the market has moved towards the need for more energy and power, that has made Pennsylvania a much more relevant and attractive market for this investment,” says Matt Smith, chief growth officer of the Allegheny Conference on Community Development, an economic and community development organization focused on Pittsburgh and its surrounding counties. “The data center sector has moved in the direction of the need for power and energy, and that has put the focus on states like Pennsylvania, where there are abundant resources of power generation and energy, particularly natural gas.”

    “It’s a state that, under this governor and previous governors, has maintained an all-of-the-above energy strategy,” adds Merle Madrid, principal for public policy at Amazon Web Services. “That diverse generation is a benefit for Pennsylvania.”

    Away from the grid, operators including Aligned, TecFusions, and Bitfarms are looking to power at least part of their respective campuses via on-site natural gas generators.

    Ben Gagnon, CEO of Bitfarms (currently rebranding to Keel Infrastructure), says he expects PA’s grid capacity to “increase dramatically,” with the grid mix continuing to shift in favor of natural gas. He notes that, in the longer-term, new nuclear capacity could find a home in the state.

    Enter Shapiro
    It’s easy to question why PA’s large selection of brownfield real estate and ample power weren’t seen as an opportunity in previous years. Even in a boom period, it is only in very recent memory that the state has become a hotspot for development.

    Anzur of the PA Chamber says the shift is largely down to a change in policies, spearheaded by state Governor Josh Shapiro. Two of the main roadblocks, previously, he says, were tax and permitting.

    “Pennsylvania has just been a nightmare when it comes to our permitting processes, really at all levels of government,” he says. In 2022, Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson joked that a new US Steel plant in his state would be up and running before the company would have even gotten its first construction permit in PA.

    Times have changed, however. AWS’ Madrid calls Shapiro’s support a “unique differentiator” and says he has been a “leading voice” in attracting new business to the state through his efforts to remove business barriers.

    During Shapiro’s time in office, Pennsylvania has stood up the Office of Transformation and Opportunity (OTO). Created by executive order in 2024, OTO aims to bring together different state departments and agencies involved in permitting and development into one central point of contact for businesses to speed up processes.

    He also introduced the Streamlining Permits for Economic Expansion and Development (SPEED) Act to enable expedited permitting processes for qualifying businesses. These include permits for air quality, earth disturbance, water, and dam safety. In practice, this means businesses can find their own “qualified professionals” to offer preliminary judgments on their applications, rather than waiting for the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to make a ruling. These experts then report back to the DEP so it can rubber-stamp applications. Alongside this, the Chapter 105 Pilot Program also aims to improve the review process for water obstruction and encroachment permits. The DEP has said it expects these two programs to shorten the typical review timeline by nearly two months.

    The SPEED Act now also has ‘deemed approval’ on some permits, meaning if the state doesn’t take action within a set timeframe, that request is authorized automatically.

    “That kind of combined leadership has really been a breath of fresh air,” says Madrid. “Governor Shapiro told us he was going to run through the wall with state government to make sure that permitting delays and other regulatory things aren’t unnecessarily burdensome. And we can say he’s done that.”

    Smith of the Allegheny Conference also notes that PA has traditionally suffered from a lack of site readiness, with many brownfield sites having potential but requiring work to be made pad-ready. Gov. Shapiro created the PA SITES program to remediate this, offering grants to make various properties around the state ready for development. More than $146 million has been invested across 37 sites to date through the program.

    “Five years ago, I would have said permitting reform and site investment were the two biggest impediments,” says Smith. “They have largely been removed as impediments. What’s changed over the last couple of years has been the recognition that we need to compete for business investment: the message to the market is that Pennsylvania is now serious about operating at the speed of business.”

    On the tax side, the state has reduced its corporate net income tax rate from 9.99 percent – one of the highest in the country – to 7.49 percent, with the rate set to fall to 4.99 percent by 2031. “We’ve taken care of what used to be a giant red stop sign to companies looking for places to invest and put down roots,” says Anzur.

    Shippingport Industrial Park

    Aligned is developing at a former power plant in Shippingport. – Frontier Group of Companies

    “Overall, the state is becoming increasingly welcoming to data center development,” DC Byte’s Tadesse adds. “Pennsylvania offers competitive tax incentives for data center developers, including a full sales and use tax exemption for qualifying large-scale projects. Permitting remains largely local, but recent policy changes signal a more supportive and streamlined approach.”

    There are other grants and programs that incentivise development, and TecFusions’ Farney tells DCD the state has a “great incentive package compared to others.”

    The company’s redevelopment of a former metals manufacturing campus outside Pittsburgh has received an RACP grant, a grant program for redevelopment projects in the state. Iron Mountain is also a recipient of RACP funding.

    Despite all the promise and potential of Pennsylvania, it’s not a free-for-all for developers. Governor Shapiro might be pro-data center, but despite all the new business-friendly legislation, he has stated he won’t let new developments impact the energy prices of residents.

    During his 2026-2027 budget address, Shapiro said that while PA should play a leading role in the development of AI and data centers, Pennsylvanians have “real concerns about these data centers and the impact they could have on our communities, our utility bills, and our environment.”

    He has put forward proposals, including a requirement that operators bring their own power for new projects, or fully fund new generation capacity. As part of the Governor’s Responsible Infrastructure Development (GRID) standards, he intends to introduce “strict” water conservation protections, commitments to hire local labour, and engage with local communities.

    Opposition from residents in many communities – and data center moratoria from local officials in others – suggests not every corner of the state is as welcoming, and may indicate stumbling blocks ahead for developers and operators. And more roadblocks could be coming.

    In February, Pennsylvania Senator Katie Muth said she would be looking to introduce legislation that would bring in a three-year moratorium on hyperscale data center development.

    The move, she said, would “protect local communities from corporate exploitation,” but it’s unclear if such a bill would pass. Among her concerns, Muth pointed to the impact of new developments on residential energy bills, as well as the environmental impact of new diesel generators and gas plants.

    Boom or bust?
    Bitfarms’ CEO Gagnon thinks Pennsylvania could be a key player in the AI realm going forward.

    “Pennsylvania has a lot of the same dynamics as Texas, being a huge energy state with massive energy resources,” he says. “And you have the benefit of being in a much cooler climate, and that proximity to the East Coast major metropolitan areas.”

    He notes that during the recent AI boom, power “has been given priority” over location, but that isn’t a trend that we should expect to play out in perpetuity.

    arconic pennsylvania tecfusions

    TecFusions is developing a gigawatt campus outside Pittsburgh – Google Maps

    “For the vast majority of demand in the future, which is going to be inference, location matters a tremendous amount,” Gagnon says. “I think Texas is going to be really just for training, and areas like Pennsylvania are really going to be focused on inference.”

    TierPoint’s Schuett says the company’s footprint in Pennsylvania means it is well-placed for enterprise AI growth in the coming years, despite its traditional focus on enterprise colocation.

    “Our ability to be an Edge market and serve kind of that mid-scale range – from the hundreds of kilowatts to 20MW at the most – is going to be where the demand is coming from,” he says.

    But, just as with the wider AI boom playing out across the US and globally, there are fears of a bubble and concerns that some of the projects will never get built.

    “Project delivery in Pennsylvania is tenant-driven, with most large-scale developments moving forward only after securing anchor leases,” warns DC Byte’s Tadesse. “This suggests that only a subset of announced projects will reach fruition, primarily backed by

    hyperscalers and AI training-focused neocloud operators.”

    DatacenterHawk’s Myer notes some of the companies that have filed for, or announced projects in PA, are not traditionally involved in data centers, and will need to build experienced teams and/or find development partners to get capacity online. He also believes there will likely be projects that won’t ever be completed.

    Myer’s view is that Pennsylvania will never rival Virginia or Texas, but will still be a “sizeable market with a chunk of capacity,” and continue to grow as the corridors between major markets such as Virginia and Columbus fill out.

    “We have all of the ingredients that make data center investments successful,” concludes Smith of the Allegheny Conference. “We have energy assets. We have industrial sites that are already connected to that energy infrastructure. And we have a welcoming political and policy structure in this state and region for this kind of investment. And we welcome it.”

    The birthplace of AI and the US oil industry seems ready to shake off its Rust Belt title and play a starring role in the race to develop AI infrastructure.

    How the Rust Belt state has become one of latest boom markets in the US

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  20. KavaStocks

    Follow
    $KEEL I am long and still scaling in, and this read does not change that. It is just where the chart sits today.

    The chart is ugly, and momentum is why. After the run to its highs, it has rolled over, with MACD crossing down from up high, RSI sliding off an overbought peak, and Stoch nearly on the floor. All of it points the same way. The structure underneath keeps it from being worse: price is still above the cloud and above S1 at 5.47, so the trend itself has not broken, and what has come off so far is only the froth from the top.

    Still, momentum tends to lead price, so even with that structure intact, the pull is lower. The next real shelf below S1 is where equilibrium and S2 line up, at 4.54, and that is where this goes if S1 gives.

    None of it is guaranteed, and a name this extended was overdue to cool off regardless. It is also not happening to KEEL alone: the whole AI infrastructure cohort turned down together, and this is one chart caught inside it. The ugliness is real and the position is unchanged. The level that matters now is 5.47.

    This is an opportunity if you look at it correctly.

    Jun 29, 2026 6:01 PM

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